Miami - Offense bounced back, hanging 31 points on a talented Panthers' Defense, tied for the most (BC) points which the Panthers have given up all year. Offense is top-30 in Points Per Game (23rd), Yards Per Play (30th); and RedZone Scoring Offense (13th). In the last two games, we are 8 for 28 on 3rd Down (.285), so Rhett needs to work this Offense into much more managable 3rd Down and Distances. Two things which would give the Offense some positve impact: (1) 21/22 personnel packages out of the Shotgun Spread, with both Cam and Knighton in the backfield, creating both isolation and misdirection running plays to confuse the UVA defense; and (2) speed options with King and the RB to the outside. Don't know Brevin Jordan's status for tomorrow, but as explained below, if he is active, then he can have a MASSIVE game against this UVA Defense. Good to see some different WRs getting a chance.
Defensively, despite some struggles, this is still a Defense which ranks top-30 in Scoring Defense (23rd), 3rd Down % Defense (17th), Tackles for Loss (5th), Turnovers Gained (18th), and Sacks (28th). Granted, outside of Clemson, we faced poor QBs, but the Defense to date has done enough to get the job done. As long as this Offense can maintain a 35-38 Point Scoring Average, giving up 20-27 points per game isn't going to be an issue in today's college football game. Need better tackling in 1-v-1 situations. Too many arm tackles, poor angles, and failure to proeprly wrap. Poor reflection on coaching from Baker/Patke. Secondary has been strong for the most part. Bubba has been huge anchoring the back end of this Defense. I prefer to see man-to-man coverage over zone with continued aggressive blitzing. I think that we'll have at 1-2 turnovers against UVA's Offense.
Special Teams - GREAT JOB defending against the Pitt fake punt, and Punt Return looks a lot better without Pope there. Hedley and Borregales continue to impress, and in my opinion, are worth 3-6 points per game in our favor between flipping field position and scoring FGs/PATs.
UVA - UVA limps into tomorrow on a 3-game losing streak after its opening win against Duke. This is NOT a good UVA team. Despite an 18-point win over Duke, UVA TRAILED heading into the 4th Quarter before pulling away late. This is a team averaging a paltry 22.0 Points Per Game, and giving up 36.6 PPG.
UVA's Offense is VERY limited, and they've had QB issues all season. UVA started out with Brennan Armstrong, who is a bit of a poor man's Josh Allen. Mediocre throwing mechanics, erratic at times, who cannot throw on the run to his weak right side (left-handed QB), but a physical/effective/tough running QB (not as big). He had 5 TDs and 6 INTs before being injured. His backup, Lindell Stone, is more of a thrower, less of a runner. Had a huge game against NC State, then a poor game against Wake Forest. So it's been up and down, all over the place for UVA at the QB position. I'm confident that our Defense can contain UVA's Offense, get a BUNCH of both sacks and TFLs, and 1-2 turnovers.
UVA's receiving corp is average at best. UVA's passing game is not explosive, and when it needs a big play downfield, it looks for the Freshman Lavel Davis Jr., the Freshman, who is 6'7". Not a burner, but obviously a big-tall WR. Duke, NC State, Clemson, and Wake - everyime UVA needed a big passing play, it was a jump ball, sideline go-up-and-get-it type of play to Davis Jr. The Cavaliers do not have a potent rushing game - only 44th in Rushing Yards Per Game and 33rd in Rushing Yards Per Carry. Shane Simpson had a bad injury last year, and hasn't been the same since that injury.
UVA's DL is a C+/B-. Mostly above average against the run, occassionally good pass rushing. UVA's LBs are also a C+/B-. Don't see a lot of special. I'd give UVA's Secondary is a C. UVA's Defense ranks 117th in Yards Per Pass Attempt and 111th in Pass Yards Per Game, but 7th in INTs. UVA plays a lot of ZONE, and whether it was Duke, Clemson, NC State, or Wake, gave up a LOT of completions in the space behind the LBs and in front of the Safeties. UVA has been burned all season with these 12-18 yard TE/Slot WR Seam Routes in between the hash marks. Rhett needs to exploit that the way we have had success this season. UVA blitzes a lot in obvious 3rd Down passing situations, so Rhett may want to throw more on 1st and 2nd Down, and run more on 3rd Down to keep UVA's Defense off balance.
Special Teams - average at best. UVA fumbled a punt against Duke opening game. Kicker and Punter look above average to me, and don't see a lot of explosiveness in their Punt Return/Kick Return game. They've tried THREE Fake Punts this season, so we need to be aware of that at any time tomorrow.
Overall - I predicted a more measured outcome against Pitt, than what I think will happen tomorrow. I am expecting us to come out and look explosive on Offense early. 14-0 lead early, maybe Pitt gets a FG. 14-3 Miami, First Quarter. Second Quarter, I think that our Offense will get a few FGs, but turn the ball over somewhere. Maybe our Defense gives up a fluke TD somewhere after our Offense's turnover. 20-10 Miami, Halftime. 3rd Quarter, I like an early TD somewhere (Pick-6, Return, Homerun Play). Teams trade FGs toward the end of the Quarter. 30-13 Miami, 3rd Quarter. 4th Quarter, we take our foot off the gas a little, and lose focus. Pitt gets a TD to cut it back to a 10-point game. But our Offense hit a homerun play to break it open again, followed by a TD late in the game. 40-20 Miami, Final.
I'm really expecting a rock solid game from Offense, Defense, and Special Teams.
Miami 40 - UVA 20
Defensively, despite some struggles, this is still a Defense which ranks top-30 in Scoring Defense (23rd), 3rd Down % Defense (17th), Tackles for Loss (5th), Turnovers Gained (18th), and Sacks (28th). Granted, outside of Clemson, we faced poor QBs, but the Defense to date has done enough to get the job done. As long as this Offense can maintain a 35-38 Point Scoring Average, giving up 20-27 points per game isn't going to be an issue in today's college football game. Need better tackling in 1-v-1 situations. Too many arm tackles, poor angles, and failure to proeprly wrap. Poor reflection on coaching from Baker/Patke. Secondary has been strong for the most part. Bubba has been huge anchoring the back end of this Defense. I prefer to see man-to-man coverage over zone with continued aggressive blitzing. I think that we'll have at 1-2 turnovers against UVA's Offense.
Special Teams - GREAT JOB defending against the Pitt fake punt, and Punt Return looks a lot better without Pope there. Hedley and Borregales continue to impress, and in my opinion, are worth 3-6 points per game in our favor between flipping field position and scoring FGs/PATs.
UVA - UVA limps into tomorrow on a 3-game losing streak after its opening win against Duke. This is NOT a good UVA team. Despite an 18-point win over Duke, UVA TRAILED heading into the 4th Quarter before pulling away late. This is a team averaging a paltry 22.0 Points Per Game, and giving up 36.6 PPG.
UVA's Offense is VERY limited, and they've had QB issues all season. UVA started out with Brennan Armstrong, who is a bit of a poor man's Josh Allen. Mediocre throwing mechanics, erratic at times, who cannot throw on the run to his weak right side (left-handed QB), but a physical/effective/tough running QB (not as big). He had 5 TDs and 6 INTs before being injured. His backup, Lindell Stone, is more of a thrower, less of a runner. Had a huge game against NC State, then a poor game against Wake Forest. So it's been up and down, all over the place for UVA at the QB position. I'm confident that our Defense can contain UVA's Offense, get a BUNCH of both sacks and TFLs, and 1-2 turnovers.
UVA's receiving corp is average at best. UVA's passing game is not explosive, and when it needs a big play downfield, it looks for the Freshman Lavel Davis Jr., the Freshman, who is 6'7". Not a burner, but obviously a big-tall WR. Duke, NC State, Clemson, and Wake - everyime UVA needed a big passing play, it was a jump ball, sideline go-up-and-get-it type of play to Davis Jr. The Cavaliers do not have a potent rushing game - only 44th in Rushing Yards Per Game and 33rd in Rushing Yards Per Carry. Shane Simpson had a bad injury last year, and hasn't been the same since that injury.
UVA's DL is a C+/B-. Mostly above average against the run, occassionally good pass rushing. UVA's LBs are also a C+/B-. Don't see a lot of special. I'd give UVA's Secondary is a C. UVA's Defense ranks 117th in Yards Per Pass Attempt and 111th in Pass Yards Per Game, but 7th in INTs. UVA plays a lot of ZONE, and whether it was Duke, Clemson, NC State, or Wake, gave up a LOT of completions in the space behind the LBs and in front of the Safeties. UVA has been burned all season with these 12-18 yard TE/Slot WR Seam Routes in between the hash marks. Rhett needs to exploit that the way we have had success this season. UVA blitzes a lot in obvious 3rd Down passing situations, so Rhett may want to throw more on 1st and 2nd Down, and run more on 3rd Down to keep UVA's Defense off balance.
Special Teams - average at best. UVA fumbled a punt against Duke opening game. Kicker and Punter look above average to me, and don't see a lot of explosiveness in their Punt Return/Kick Return game. They've tried THREE Fake Punts this season, so we need to be aware of that at any time tomorrow.
Overall - I predicted a more measured outcome against Pitt, than what I think will happen tomorrow. I am expecting us to come out and look explosive on Offense early. 14-0 lead early, maybe Pitt gets a FG. 14-3 Miami, First Quarter. Second Quarter, I think that our Offense will get a few FGs, but turn the ball over somewhere. Maybe our Defense gives up a fluke TD somewhere after our Offense's turnover. 20-10 Miami, Halftime. 3rd Quarter, I like an early TD somewhere (Pick-6, Return, Homerun Play). Teams trade FGs toward the end of the Quarter. 30-13 Miami, 3rd Quarter. 4th Quarter, we take our foot off the gas a little, and lose focus. Pitt gets a TD to cut it back to a 10-point game. But our Offense hit a homerun play to break it open again, followed by a TD late in the game. 40-20 Miami, Final.
I'm really expecting a rock solid game from Offense, Defense, and Special Teams.
Miami 40 - UVA 20
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