Regarding probabilities, playing russian roulette and winning doesn't mean it's smart to play the game. The odds of surviving Covid are good to excellent for any age cohort. Covid is not Ebola. Having said that, from an individual standpoint it is still a MUCH smarter play to get the vaccine than risk the outcome of getting sick. The risk-adjusted outcomes are just not comparable. Not to mention that societally we are still dealing with a full blown pandemic (and a big risk to the season) vs simply an endemic disease because of all the knuckle dragging antivaxxers out there.
As far as natural immunity being superior to or lasting longer than vaccine immunity here are links to three highly reputable sources that disagree with you, four if you count me:
Hopkins
NIH
CDC
The VAERS data is important and does tell us a lot about absolute and relative risks from vaccines. The data that was gathered for Covid vaccine adverse effects was also gathered for smallpox, shingles, measles, mumps, rubella etc. So apples to apples it tells us a lot about risk.