First, I'm glad Gary decided to do an opinion piece, and it was a good read. However, I don't think it went far enough. I would like some more analysis on the potential impact of satellite camps on the Miami Hurricanes program. Maybe it would be better suited as part of a much larger opinion piece on the impact of all the various changes that are occurring in CFB on the Miami Hurricanes program.
I can tell you this, there is a big part of me that is very concerned about the long-term future of this program. In the short-term, I believe our struggles center almost entirely around poor coaching. In the short-term, I think our future is very bright if we can significantly improve coaching. However, in the long-term, I think the success of this program is very much in jeopardy, and our level of success is more tied to the direction CFB is headed with all the rule changes regarding player compensation, recruiting, and Power 5 autonomy in general.
Before you dismiss my opinion, please take some time to read my reasons for being concerned. To really explain where I'm coming from, we first need to take a step back and assess our program's competitive profile. What are our inherent strengths and weaknesses as a program. This is pretty simple in my opinion. Here's how I view it:
Strengths:
1. Fertile recruiting territory (arguably the best in the country)
2. Location/weather
3. Highly-regarded academics
Weaknesses:
1. Lack of money (severely restrains coaching, facilities, recruiting, and operations)
2. Small and geographically dispersed alumni and fan base (very closely tied to weakness #1)
There may be some that disagree with this statement, but I think it is safe to say that the only reason Miami has been able to achieve the success it has up to this point is because our fertile recruiting territory more than compensated for our weaknesses (namely our lack of money). I think our location/weather has only marginally contributed to our past success as a program, and I debated whether to even list academics as a strength because I tend to believe that our academic requirements hurt our football program more than they help our football program. All that said, I think it is also safe to say that if the University of Miami was located in almost any other place, we would have never sniffed a national championship, even with the great coaches we've had.
This brings me back to my original point. The success of the Miami Hurricanes football program is almost entirely dependent on its ability to win the recruiting battles in South Florida. My concern about the long-term future of the Miami Hurricanes football program stems directly from my lack of confidence in its ability to do just that.
Recruiting in South Florida has become a war zone. With the relative ease with which people can travel around the country now days, recruits are becoming less and less tied to staying within specific geographic regions. That's the first hit to our ability to keep kids home, and that by itself will create greater and greater challenges for our program over time. With the internet, social media, recruiting sites, etc. kids are now also able to get their names out there more widely. That's the second hit to our ability to keep kids home, and that too by itself will create greater and greater challenges for our program over time. Big money schools are increasingly investing more and more money into facilities and coaches to dampen the shock of selecting a school that is far away from home or located in a cold weather state. For the first time, this year kids will receive stipends to cover the full cost of attendance, which will make it easier for kids to travel home or to have family travel to them. Families are now receiving allowances to attend the College Football Playoff games, and there have been discussions about extending those allowances further. Discussions are being held surrounding pay for play. And now, schools from anywhere in the country can essentially set up permanent shop in South Florida via satellite camps.
All of these things are a direct and significant threat to our ability to win the recruiting battles in South Florida. As a result, all of these things are a direct and significant threat to the long-term success of the Miami Hurricanes football program. Power 5 autonomy only figures to further disproportionately benefit the big money schools. Can the Miami Hurricanes survive and thrive through it all? I don't know, and that has me very concerned.
I can tell you this, there is a big part of me that is very concerned about the long-term future of this program. In the short-term, I believe our struggles center almost entirely around poor coaching. In the short-term, I think our future is very bright if we can significantly improve coaching. However, in the long-term, I think the success of this program is very much in jeopardy, and our level of success is more tied to the direction CFB is headed with all the rule changes regarding player compensation, recruiting, and Power 5 autonomy in general.
Before you dismiss my opinion, please take some time to read my reasons for being concerned. To really explain where I'm coming from, we first need to take a step back and assess our program's competitive profile. What are our inherent strengths and weaknesses as a program. This is pretty simple in my opinion. Here's how I view it:
Strengths:
1. Fertile recruiting territory (arguably the best in the country)
2. Location/weather
3. Highly-regarded academics
Weaknesses:
1. Lack of money (severely restrains coaching, facilities, recruiting, and operations)
2. Small and geographically dispersed alumni and fan base (very closely tied to weakness #1)
There may be some that disagree with this statement, but I think it is safe to say that the only reason Miami has been able to achieve the success it has up to this point is because our fertile recruiting territory more than compensated for our weaknesses (namely our lack of money). I think our location/weather has only marginally contributed to our past success as a program, and I debated whether to even list academics as a strength because I tend to believe that our academic requirements hurt our football program more than they help our football program. All that said, I think it is also safe to say that if the University of Miami was located in almost any other place, we would have never sniffed a national championship, even with the great coaches we've had.
This brings me back to my original point. The success of the Miami Hurricanes football program is almost entirely dependent on its ability to win the recruiting battles in South Florida. My concern about the long-term future of the Miami Hurricanes football program stems directly from my lack of confidence in its ability to do just that.
Recruiting in South Florida has become a war zone. With the relative ease with which people can travel around the country now days, recruits are becoming less and less tied to staying within specific geographic regions. That's the first hit to our ability to keep kids home, and that by itself will create greater and greater challenges for our program over time. With the internet, social media, recruiting sites, etc. kids are now also able to get their names out there more widely. That's the second hit to our ability to keep kids home, and that too by itself will create greater and greater challenges for our program over time. Big money schools are increasingly investing more and more money into facilities and coaches to dampen the shock of selecting a school that is far away from home or located in a cold weather state. For the first time, this year kids will receive stipends to cover the full cost of attendance, which will make it easier for kids to travel home or to have family travel to them. Families are now receiving allowances to attend the College Football Playoff games, and there have been discussions about extending those allowances further. Discussions are being held surrounding pay for play. And now, schools from anywhere in the country can essentially set up permanent shop in South Florida via satellite camps.
All of these things are a direct and significant threat to our ability to win the recruiting battles in South Florida. As a result, all of these things are a direct and significant threat to the long-term success of the Miami Hurricanes football program. Power 5 autonomy only figures to further disproportionately benefit the big money schools. Can the Miami Hurricanes survive and thrive through it all? I don't know, and that has me very concerned.
