I can't remember the last time we went into a season with this many question marks, but these are my thoughts on the UF Game.
(1) QBs
I feel about, above average with Jarren starting. Not great, not good, above average. As of now..... Part of my feeling is the fact that he has a total of 17 TOTAL PASSING YARDS in his career over 1 game and 3 pass attempts. The one thing Jarren has going for him in this game is the COMPLETE ELEMENT OF SURPRISE. Literally, nobody knows what the hell he, and our offense as a whole, is going to look like for the first few series... So, we HAVE to use the element of surprise on offense to score TDs on something like 2 out of our first 3 series of the game in the first 1 to 1 1/2 quarters- that's the only way I see us winning this game. Jarren gets out to a lightning hot start and then Enos can control him and the offense for the remaining 2 1/2 quarters.
Compared to Jarren's 17 total passing yards on 3 attempts in 1 game, Feleipe Franks has career 3,900 Passing Yards, 33 TDs, and he is now entering is FOURTH SEASON. Let those numbers sink in for a second. It is tough to overcome THAT much of a discrepancy between the starting QBs. And Mullen is a good OC and he and Franks have been working together for some time.
(2) HB
Lingard being out is a big blow, but I think that DeeJay and Cam as a 1-2 punch are better than what Florida will roll out with their RBs. Not worried about UF's RBs. I do think that DeeJay and Cam need to have AT LEAST 150 combined rushing yards for us to win, no questions about it (and maybe Jarren adding 20-25 yards on the ground of his own).
(2) OL/DL
I actually think we have a minor advantage in the trenches, on both OL and DL. I'm buying our OL a little more than I was about a month ago. I think Zion will hold his own, and paired with a solid veteran player like Donaldson at LG, our LT-LG combination protecting Jarren's blindside will be good, in my opinion. I also think Gaynor will be more than serviceable at Center this year- probably a B- player. I'm also am coming around that we will have a presence pass rushing the QB with Garvin. Not sure what to expect from Bethel and the interior guys.
(3) WR/TE
I'm concerned about our WRs... I haven't seen the impact from this group all off-season that I had hoped to see. This group was one of the WORST in ALL OF COLLEGE FOOTBALL last year at dropped footballs. The first thing that I heard in fall practice out of the gate was guys dropping the football. Gary talked about this last night on Canesport Live. And now there is a big belief that Osborn will be the best of the bunch, leading the team in reception yards...? A Buffalo transfer...? What does that say about some of these other guys...? And Jeff Thomas...? Where has he been...? Lot of talk, little action. Time to light it up under the lights.
As far as TEs, I can't believe how under-the-radar Brevin Jordan has been this off-season. This guy is an absolute beast, and in my opinion our best Red Zone target. I think he will lead the team in TD receptions this year with 9. Brevin can cause absolute chaos on the Gator Defense lining up in different places in different formations, and I think that we'll even see him in some H-Back looks. Brevin needs to have 6-9 receptions and be the guy that gets the tough 3rd Down Conversions and big looks in the Red Zone.
Florida's WRs...? Their starting 3 WRs are Senior, Senior, Junior... 7 out of UF's 8 WR's are UPPER CLASSMEN... I anticipate Mullen going 4-5 Wide and using his 4th and 5th upperclassmen WRs to test our lack of depth/experience at CB. Garvin must have a career night getting after Frank to disrupt Florida's passing game.
(4) LB.
We have THREE starting Seniors. They have to be best unit out there for us, both offense and defense. Shaq and Mike, with great seasons, could be late 1st Round to mid 2nd Round draft picks. These guys are NFL players. They have to be all over the field in every way, shape, and form. No ifs, ands, or buts about it... Don't know much about UF's LBs, but our LBs have to be the better unit.
(5) CB/S
Bandy is a stud, and I like Blades. I think that those guys will play well at CB-1 and CB-2, but when UF runs their 4-5 WR sets for MOST of the game, you really have to wonder whether our CB-3, CB-4, and CB-5 can hang in there and hold the line enough times... It's a major match-up problem which I expect Mullen to exploit. Knowles...? (Face Palm)... And there's a ton of freshmen on that roster, green behind the ears going up against 3rd and 4th year upperclassmen Gator WRs... Don't like it at all.
That said, I DO LIKE our safeties. I think Amari is underrated and will play at a B+, possibly A- level us this year. We know Bubba is a great talent, and I think that Hall will be good enough to hold his own in this game. So, I DON'T think that we'll get beat deep. I think Mullen will try to nickel and dime us to death down the field with his 4-5 WR sets and look to exploit the #3/#4/#5 WR match-ups.
(6)P/K
I trust Baxa in a close game and to boot kickoffs for touchbacks- he's a real weapon. Punter- we're a mile better at Punter by default. I expect FAR BETTER field position for us against UF than what we saw last year against LSU. The REAL issue with me on Special Teams is can be steal some points by blocking a Punt/FG attempt to set our offense up with a short field...? Maybe Thomas busting a punt return 30-50 yards to set our offense up with a short field. When you're the underdog, you have to create those impact plays to tilt the game.
Overall:
I don't think that this game will be a blowout. I expect a game that looks similar to 2013. Lower scoring with both defenses playing well for most of the game. I think that our offense will struggle for most of the first half. 3-3 First Quarter, and 10-6 UF at Halftime. I think that UF scores in the 3rd Quarter and takes a 17-6 lead, but we get a turnover and either Deejay/Cam run one in for a TD to get back in it 17-13 at the end of the 3rd Quarter. I think it's a 17-16 game early in the 4th Quarter, but UF breaks one big on a pass play and takes a 24-16 lead. Our defense mostly stays strong, but our offense is forced to press, and there's a pick/fumble of some sort, leading to a UF FG to effectively seal the game 27-16.
I expect Jarren to look good at times, but I also expect him to look like a (true) freshman. Think he will finish something like 17-27 for 240-260 yards, 20-25 rushing yards, 0 TDs, 2 Ints. There is NO EXCUSE for losing or looking like shit. There SHOULD be MANAGEABLE EXPECTATIONS. These two things are not mutually exclusive. And I EXPECT this team to compete hard, be in the game for most of the game, and have positives upon which to build. No need for the fans to implode after one game. The team is talented, the schedule is weaker, and the Coastal Division is winable. We CAN win this game, but the margin of error is slim to none, and unfortunately, I just don't think that we will play the way at a higher, mostly mistake-free game, to win.
Final: UF 27 - UM 16
(1) QBs
I feel about, above average with Jarren starting. Not great, not good, above average. As of now..... Part of my feeling is the fact that he has a total of 17 TOTAL PASSING YARDS in his career over 1 game and 3 pass attempts. The one thing Jarren has going for him in this game is the COMPLETE ELEMENT OF SURPRISE. Literally, nobody knows what the hell he, and our offense as a whole, is going to look like for the first few series... So, we HAVE to use the element of surprise on offense to score TDs on something like 2 out of our first 3 series of the game in the first 1 to 1 1/2 quarters- that's the only way I see us winning this game. Jarren gets out to a lightning hot start and then Enos can control him and the offense for the remaining 2 1/2 quarters.
Compared to Jarren's 17 total passing yards on 3 attempts in 1 game, Feleipe Franks has career 3,900 Passing Yards, 33 TDs, and he is now entering is FOURTH SEASON. Let those numbers sink in for a second. It is tough to overcome THAT much of a discrepancy between the starting QBs. And Mullen is a good OC and he and Franks have been working together for some time.
(2) HB
Lingard being out is a big blow, but I think that DeeJay and Cam as a 1-2 punch are better than what Florida will roll out with their RBs. Not worried about UF's RBs. I do think that DeeJay and Cam need to have AT LEAST 150 combined rushing yards for us to win, no questions about it (and maybe Jarren adding 20-25 yards on the ground of his own).
(2) OL/DL
I actually think we have a minor advantage in the trenches, on both OL and DL. I'm buying our OL a little more than I was about a month ago. I think Zion will hold his own, and paired with a solid veteran player like Donaldson at LG, our LT-LG combination protecting Jarren's blindside will be good, in my opinion. I also think Gaynor will be more than serviceable at Center this year- probably a B- player. I'm also am coming around that we will have a presence pass rushing the QB with Garvin. Not sure what to expect from Bethel and the interior guys.
(3) WR/TE
I'm concerned about our WRs... I haven't seen the impact from this group all off-season that I had hoped to see. This group was one of the WORST in ALL OF COLLEGE FOOTBALL last year at dropped footballs. The first thing that I heard in fall practice out of the gate was guys dropping the football. Gary talked about this last night on Canesport Live. And now there is a big belief that Osborn will be the best of the bunch, leading the team in reception yards...? A Buffalo transfer...? What does that say about some of these other guys...? And Jeff Thomas...? Where has he been...? Lot of talk, little action. Time to light it up under the lights.
As far as TEs, I can't believe how under-the-radar Brevin Jordan has been this off-season. This guy is an absolute beast, and in my opinion our best Red Zone target. I think he will lead the team in TD receptions this year with 9. Brevin can cause absolute chaos on the Gator Defense lining up in different places in different formations, and I think that we'll even see him in some H-Back looks. Brevin needs to have 6-9 receptions and be the guy that gets the tough 3rd Down Conversions and big looks in the Red Zone.
Florida's WRs...? Their starting 3 WRs are Senior, Senior, Junior... 7 out of UF's 8 WR's are UPPER CLASSMEN... I anticipate Mullen going 4-5 Wide and using his 4th and 5th upperclassmen WRs to test our lack of depth/experience at CB. Garvin must have a career night getting after Frank to disrupt Florida's passing game.
(4) LB.
We have THREE starting Seniors. They have to be best unit out there for us, both offense and defense. Shaq and Mike, with great seasons, could be late 1st Round to mid 2nd Round draft picks. These guys are NFL players. They have to be all over the field in every way, shape, and form. No ifs, ands, or buts about it... Don't know much about UF's LBs, but our LBs have to be the better unit.
(5) CB/S
Bandy is a stud, and I like Blades. I think that those guys will play well at CB-1 and CB-2, but when UF runs their 4-5 WR sets for MOST of the game, you really have to wonder whether our CB-3, CB-4, and CB-5 can hang in there and hold the line enough times... It's a major match-up problem which I expect Mullen to exploit. Knowles...? (Face Palm)... And there's a ton of freshmen on that roster, green behind the ears going up against 3rd and 4th year upperclassmen Gator WRs... Don't like it at all.
That said, I DO LIKE our safeties. I think Amari is underrated and will play at a B+, possibly A- level us this year. We know Bubba is a great talent, and I think that Hall will be good enough to hold his own in this game. So, I DON'T think that we'll get beat deep. I think Mullen will try to nickel and dime us to death down the field with his 4-5 WR sets and look to exploit the #3/#4/#5 WR match-ups.
(6)P/K
I trust Baxa in a close game and to boot kickoffs for touchbacks- he's a real weapon. Punter- we're a mile better at Punter by default. I expect FAR BETTER field position for us against UF than what we saw last year against LSU. The REAL issue with me on Special Teams is can be steal some points by blocking a Punt/FG attempt to set our offense up with a short field...? Maybe Thomas busting a punt return 30-50 yards to set our offense up with a short field. When you're the underdog, you have to create those impact plays to tilt the game.
Overall:
I don't think that this game will be a blowout. I expect a game that looks similar to 2013. Lower scoring with both defenses playing well for most of the game. I think that our offense will struggle for most of the first half. 3-3 First Quarter, and 10-6 UF at Halftime. I think that UF scores in the 3rd Quarter and takes a 17-6 lead, but we get a turnover and either Deejay/Cam run one in for a TD to get back in it 17-13 at the end of the 3rd Quarter. I think it's a 17-16 game early in the 4th Quarter, but UF breaks one big on a pass play and takes a 24-16 lead. Our defense mostly stays strong, but our offense is forced to press, and there's a pick/fumble of some sort, leading to a UF FG to effectively seal the game 27-16.
I expect Jarren to look good at times, but I also expect him to look like a (true) freshman. Think he will finish something like 17-27 for 240-260 yards, 20-25 rushing yards, 0 TDs, 2 Ints. There is NO EXCUSE for losing or looking like shit. There SHOULD be MANAGEABLE EXPECTATIONS. These two things are not mutually exclusive. And I EXPECT this team to compete hard, be in the game for most of the game, and have positives upon which to build. No need for the fans to implode after one game. The team is talented, the schedule is weaker, and the Coastal Division is winable. We CAN win this game, but the margin of error is slim to none, and unfortunately, I just don't think that we will play the way at a higher, mostly mistake-free game, to win.
Final: UF 27 - UM 16
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