Thoughts on personal investment strategy

[dolcane]

This thread is about financial planning as it relates to the jacketed-up US monetary policy.

Admission…I’m a conservative and have reached the conclusion that conservative monetary policy is dead and buried and has been for decades.

I just wanted to get that out of the way. My side (R) sucks at money management and so does the other side (D). However, this is not a political thread. PLEASE DON’T MAKE THIS ABOUT POLITICS. There are plenty of daily threads for that. I only mentioned D's & R's in order to set the tone that neither side seems interested in sound monetary policy when they are in power. Again, please, let’s have a discussion about personal investment strategy and not politics.

Do any of you have that feeling that “somehow this feels different this time?”

Are we in the “decline of the Roman Empire” stage from a financial standpoint?

Have you changed your long term investment strategy because you feel our current path is not sustainable?

 

[ZEKEMUG]

Good thing you didn’t make post political.

 

[dolcane]

Good thing you didn’t make post political.

I get your point. I was just trying to avoid a highjacking so I made an admission that my side sucks too.

I really would like to see a discussion on personal investment strategy while acknowleding that we can expect more of the same big spender practices no matter which side is in power.

 

[cortez55403]

As a retiree (moderate Dem, fiscally conservative) without a pension, I’m totally dependent on my investments for my livelihood. I’m optimistic through 2022-23.

*pandemic has killed jobs, spending, travel etc. Got to believe a boom is coming if we vaccinate 300 million in the US

* my real estate has gone up 40% in the last 2 years. I live in a semi rural area close to big cities and big wealth. People want to escape crowded cities.

*I am very worried about the decline of our leadership worldwide. Our allies don’t trust us and shouldn’t. We need to compete and lead again! China is our overwhelming economic and military threat

 

[dolcane]

As a retiree (moderate Dem, fiscally conservative) without a pension, I’m totally dependent on my investments for my livelihood. I’m optimistic through 2022-23.

*pandemic has killed jobs, spending, travel etc. Got to believe a boom is coming if we vaccinate 300 million in the US

* my real estate has gone up 40% in the last 2 years. I live in a semi rural area close to big cities and big wealth. People want to escape crowded cities.

*I am very worried about the decline of our leadership worldwide. Our allies don’t trust us and shouldn’t. We need to compete and lead again! China is our overwhelming economic and military threat

has you outlook

As a retiree (moderate Dem, fiscally conservative) without a pension, I’m totally dependent on my investments for my livelihood. I’m optimistic through 2022-23.

*pandemic has killed jobs, spending, travel etc. Got to believe a boom is coming if we vaccinate 300 million in the US

* my real estate has gone up 40% in the last 2 years. I live in a semi rural area close to big cities and big wealth. People want to escape crowded cities.

*I am very worried about the decline of our leadership worldwide. Our allies don’t trust us and shouldn’t. We need to compete and lead again! China is our overwhelming economic and military threat

Has your outlook changed your long term investment strategy?

 

[cortez55403]

Has your outlook changed your long term investment strategy?

No. I stick to a fairly strict asset allocation strategy of 50-60% equities, 25% cash/bonds, 15-20% alternatives. Performance is monitored and rebalanced quarterly.

I‘ve followed this strategy since 2004 and don’t tend to let short to medium term events change my strategy regardless of political events.

 

[dolcane]

No. I stick to a fairly strict asset allocation strategy of 50-60% equities, 25% cash/bonds, 15-20% alternatives. Performance is monitored and rebalanced quarterly.

I‘ve followed this strategy since 2004 and don’t tend to let short to medium term events change my strategy regardless of political events.

Any thoughts about equity and real estate classes being in an ever growing bubble?

 

[cortez55403]

Any thoughts about equity and real estate classes being in an ever growing bubble?

Yes,

Equities. yes, I fear bubbles but don’t have any expertise to time my moves. Rather, I diversify within equities (US growth, value, , internatioanal, etc etc) and sell off when my equities rise above 60% of my portfolio.

Real Estate. For me, my one and only home = 90% of my real estate portfolio. I was approached to sell my home 2 weeks ago but declined cuz I have to live somewhere. if I was inclined to move to a lower tax/lower real estate cost state (eg Texas, Nevada) I could sell and pocket some cash. But, my wife would leave me as I moved away!

 

[dolcane]

Yes,

Equities. yes, I fear bubbles but don’t have any expertise to time my moves. Rather, I diversify within equities (US growth, value, , internatioanal, etc etc) and sell off when my equities rise above 60% of my portfolio.

Real Estate. For me, my one and only home = 90% of my real estate portfolio. I was approached to sell my home 2 weeks ago but declined cuz I have to live somewhere. if I was inclined to move to a lower tax/lower real estate cost state (eg Texas, Nevada) I could sell and pocket some cash. But, my wife would leave me as I moved away!

Ha! I have never really viewed my home as an investment. As you say, you have to live somewhere.

I visited the NAPA area several years back and really liked the area.

 

[4210]

Like Warren Buffet always says; don’t bet against the USA and it’s companies.

 

[cortez55403]

Ha! I have never really viewed my home as an investment. As you say, you have to live somewhere.

I visited the NAPA area several years back and really liked the area.

5 homes in my immediate group of 24 neighboring houses have sold in the last month. 40% price increase since 2019.

Two of best friends in Cali have sold to move out of state. Are they part of the California “locusts“ forcing their cash and their Blue politics on innocent residents of other states.? LOL. One bought in Bend, Oregon at 40% of the sale price he received for his home in Cali. The second invested in a new development outside of Phoenix on a larger, brand new home priced at 30% of the Cali home he sold.

Their adjustment?

Both banked and invested the cash they saved and look forward to lower state taxes. For the guy in Bend, he loves to golf and ski in the very benign weather and outdoorsy lifestyle of the area. He feels isolated, however, in that Bend is not close to anywhere. Traveling by plane (if we ever do that again) is tough.

For the guy outside of Phoenix, he fears “Red politics” among the locals and doesn’t look forward to his first summer in the heat. Ultimately, he’s likely to buy a second home someplace in a cooler environment.

Where do you live, Dol?

 

[dolcane]

5 homes in my immediate group of 24 neighboring houses have sold in the last month. 40% price increase since 2019.

Two of best friends in Cali have sold to move out of state. Are they part of the California “locusts“ forcing their cash and their Blue politics on innocent residents of other states.? LOL. One bought in Bend, Oregon at 40% of the sale price he received for his home in Cali. The second invested in a new development outside of Phoenix on a larger, brand new home priced at 30% of the Cali home he sold.

Their adjustment?

Both banked and invested the cash they saved and look forward to lower state taxes. For the guy in Bend, he loves to golf and ski in the very benign weather and outdoorsy lifestyle of the area. He feels isolated, however, in that Bend is not close to anywhere. Traveling by plane (if we ever do that again) is tough.

For the guy outside of Phoenix, he fears “Red politics” among the locals and doesn’t look forward to his first summer in the heat. Ultimately, he’s likely to buy a second home someplace in a cooler environment.

Where do you live, Dol?

South Florida.

Ironically, my neighbors have recently become smitten with Bend, Oregon.

CA is one of the few places where you can sell and move to a different location and pocket cash in the process.

 

[801canesmxer]

5 homes in my immediate group of 24 neighboring houses have sold in the last month. 40% price increase since 2019.

Two of best friends in Cali have sold to move out of state. Are they part of the California “locusts“ forcing their cash and their Blue politics on innocent residents of other states.? LOL. One bought in Bend, Oregon at 40% of the sale price he received for his home in Cali. The second invested in a new development outside of Phoenix on a larger, brand new home priced at 30% of the Cali home he sold.

Their adjustment?

Both banked and invested the cash they saved and look forward to lower state taxes. For the guy in Bend, he loves to golf and ski in the very benign weather and outdoorsy lifestyle of the area. He feels isolated, however, in that Bend is not close to anywhere. Traveling by plane (if we ever do that again) is tough.

For the guy outside of Phoenix, he fears “Red politics” among the locals and doesn’t look forward to his first summer in the heat. Ultimately, he’s likely to buy a second home someplace in a cooler environment.

Where do you live, Dol?

They are also coming in droves to Utah, which has caused an explosion in the real estate market here.

 

[cortez55403]

No doubt, 801. Oregon, Nevada, Utah, Colorado, and Texas. More recently, Miami is also seeing some immigration from Cali due to the spike in hi tech jobs in SoFla.

 

[Raoul2]

This thread is about financial planning as it relates to the jacketed-up US monetary policy.

Admission…I’m a conservative and have reached the conclusion that conservative monetary policy is dead and buried and has been for decades.

I just wanted to get that out of the way. My side (R) sucks at money management and so does the other side (D). However, this is not a political thread. PLEASE DON’T MAKE THIS ABOUT POLITICS. There are plenty of daily threads for that. I only mentioned D's & R's in order to set the tone that neither side seems interested in sound monetary policy when they are in power. Again, please, let’s have a discussion about personal investment strategy and not politics.

Do any of you have that feeling that “somehow this feels different this time?”

Are we in the “decline of the Roman Empire” stage from a financial standpoint?

Have you changed your long term investment strategy because you feel our current path is not sustainable?

Ultimately, it really depends on your investment time horizon. Buying quality companies and periodically adding to your positions (buy the dip) over a couple of decades is usually a very good strategy, as long as you buy the right companies. That way you don't have to worry about recessions since the stock will simply bounce back when the market recovers. A young investor with many decades of investing time before them would obviously benefit more, but its also possible to make a great return in a decade or two. For example a $1k investment in Netflix in 2007 would have made you $51k if you cashed out a decade later. Its also important to time the market when its recovering from a recent recession. Avoid short term trading or day trading at all costs.

 

[central17]

As a retiree (moderate Dem, fiscally conservative) without a pension, I’m totally dependent on my investments for my livelihood. I’m optimistic through 2022-23.

*pandemic has killed jobs, spending, travel etc. Got to believe a boom is coming if we vaccinate 300 million in the US

* my real estate has gone up 40% in the last 2 years. I live in a semi rural area close to big cities and big wealth. People want to escape crowded cities.

*I am very worried about the decline of our leadership worldwide. Our allies don’t trust us and shouldn’t. We need to compete and lead again! China is our overwhelming economic and military threat

Cortez,
Intelligent response to an intelligent thread started by Dolcane. Nice to see. Regarding your real estate; yes, early in the stage, but please read what some in the Federal government are reportedly attempting to do regarding Washington DC getting involved in CITY and COUNTY level zoning is scary and the antithesis of the federalist principles that the USA was founded upon and the Constitution is meant to protect. Had started a separate thread about the subject earlier today.

 

[dolcane]

Ultimately, it really depends on your investment time horizon. Buying quality companies and periodically adding to your positions (buy the dip) over a couple of decades is usually a very good strategy, as long as you buy the right companies. That way you don't have to worry about recessions since the stock will simply bounce back when the market recovers. A young investor with many decades of investing time before them would obviously benefit more, but its also possible to make a great return in a decade or two. For example a $1k investment in Netflix in 2007 would have made you $51k if you cashed out a decade later. Its also important to time the market when its recovering from a recent recession. Avoid short term trading or day trading at all costs.

Seems we agree on a lot in this area.

Only one other time have I had this uneasy feeling and that was prior to the 2008 crash. I sold out and avoided taking any losses about 6 months before the crash. The problem was that I got cold feet and waited way too long to jump back in and didn’t take full advantage of the tremendous upside recovery.

Getting off the bus is no good if you bungle the decision of when to get back on.

 

[anon_xp0fbtbt18zd1]

5 homes in my immediate group of 24 neighboring houses have sold in the last month. 40% price increase since 2019.

Two of best friends in Cali have sold to move out of state. Are they part of the California “locusts“ forcing their cash and their Blue politics on innocent residents of other states.? LOL. One bought in Bend, Oregon at 40% of the sale price he received for his home in Cali. The second invested in a new development outside of Phoenix on a larger, brand new home priced at 30% of the Cali home he sold.

Their adjustment?

Both banked and invested the cash they saved and look forward to lower state taxes. For the guy in Bend, he loves to golf and ski in the very benign weather and outdoorsy lifestyle of the area. He feels isolated, however, in that Bend is not close to anywhere. Traveling by plane (if we ever do that again) is tough.

For the guy outside of Phoenix, he fears “Red politics” among the locals and doesn’t look forward to his first summer in the heat. Ultimately, he’s likely to buy a second home someplace in a cooler environment.

Where do you live, Dol?

Re the locust comment. I live in Idaho and there is real tension with the California "locust". Idahoans love this state and have an issue with what we perceive as Californians fleeing a bad state and then turning around and voting for the same policies they just fled. Just stay in Cali...its already the way you like it...lol. Leave Idaho wild. Not to mention they artificially drive up home prices and displace people who have lived here their whole lives. Crazy situation.

 

[cortez55403]

FPOG,

I understand the resentment. I don’t agree, however, with the “locust” imagery. It creates a false narrative that greedy Californians are preying on innocent, almost virginal locals (in Idaho, Oregon, wherever) and imposing themselves on the naive indigenous local population. For me, that imagery is ludicrous.

Ex. Resident of Boise wants to sell his home. Why? If there are no homes for sale, Californians won’t come. Is the local guy moving elsewhere in Idaho (perhaps to a cheaper, rural area) or moving out of state (to Montana, the Dakotas).?

House goes up for sale. A California family seeking a less urban, cheaper lifestyle offers full or above full price, all cash, 14 day close, no contingencies. What will the local seller due? Protect Boise from a Cali invasion or take the offer? He’ll take the offer, of course.

Is the seller now a turncoat on local culture? Is the buyer an exploiter of the Boise market? “No”. Both parties made a good deal.

Again, I understand the frustration of higher housing prices due to increased numbers of out of state buyers. But, I gotta reject labeling those buyers as evil “locusts.” Both the sellers and buyers are doing what’s best for their families. Nothing sinister about that.

 

[cortez55403]

Ultimately, it really depends on your investment time horizon. Buying quality companies and periodically adding to your positions (buy the dip) over a couple of decades is usually a very good strategy, as long as you buy the right companies. That way you don't have to worry about recessions since the stock will simply bounce back when the market recovers. A young investor with many decades of investing time before them would obviously benefit more, but its also possible to make a great return in a decade or two. For example a $1k investment in Netflix in 2007 would have made you $51k if you cashed out a decade later. Its also important to time the market when its recovering from a recent recession. Avoid short term trading or day trading at all costs.

I agree Raoul. However, I don’t have the energy or expertise to invest in individual stocks. I moved to mutual funds decades ago and moved again to passively managed, low cost Index Funds over the last several years. I don’t think that I can outsmart the overall market.

But, this year I did throw some minor money at 2 SPACs (Special Purpose Acquisition Companies) that are all the rage these days. Knowing I could lose this money, it still was fun to invest in an IPO-type entity where I had a small connection to the founders. Fun stuff.

 

[anon_xp0fbtbt18zd1]

FPOG,

I understand the resentment. I don’t agree, however, with the “locust” imagery. It creates a false narrative that greedy Californians are preying on innocent, almost virginal locals (in Idaho, Oregon, wherever) and imposing themselves on the naive indigenous local population. For me, that imagery is ludicrous.

Ex. Resident of Boise wants to sell his home. Why? If there are no homes for sale, Californians won’t come. Is the local guy moving elsewhere in Idaho (perhaps to a cheaper, rural area) or moving out of state (to Montana, the Dakotas).?

House goes up for sale. A California family seeking a less urban, cheaper lifestyle offers full or above full price, all cash, 14 day close, no contingencies. What will the local seller due? Protect Boise from a Cali invasion or take the offer? He’ll take the offer, of course.

Is the seller now a turncoat on local culture? Is the buyer an exploiter of the Boise market? “No”. Both parties made a good deal.

Again, I understand the frustration of higher housing prices due to increased numbers of out of state buyers. But, I gotta reject labeling those buyers as evil “locusts.” Both the sellers and buyers are doing what’s best for their families. Nothing sinister about

I agree on a macro level....money talks. Although many of the transplants are buying houses in the brand new subdivisions the developers prop up every other weekend.

I'm a transplant too even though I consider myself an Idaho native now.... Lol. I grew up in SW Florida (Port Charlotte/Punta Gorda) but I came to Idaho to live as an idahoan, not try and change the place...which is where most of the resentment comes from.

 

[dolcane]

I agree on a macro level....money talks. Although many of the transplants are buying houses in the brand new subdivisions the developers prop up every other weekend.

I'm a transplant too even though I consider myself an Idaho native now.... Lol. I grew up in SW Florida (Port Charlotte/Punta Gorda) but I came to Idaho to live as an idahoan, not try and change the place...which is where most of the resentment comes from.

As a native of S Fl how difficult was the climate change for you?

 

[cortez55403]

As a native of S Fl how difficult was the climate change for you?

DOL,

LOL, In 1994 I interviewed in January from Coral Gables for a job in Minneapolis. There was a 104 degree F difference from takeoff to landing. 80 degrees upon takeoff, -24 F upon landing.

I got and took the job, living the next 13 years in Minneapolis. Lovely city.

You just got to get used to heat and cold. Suck it up Canes!

 

[anon_xp0fbtbt18zd1]

As a native of S Fl how difficult was the climate change for you?

Not to bad actually. The winters in Boise are pretty mild and the summers get blazing hot in July and August. In my opinion, it's an amazing state. I wouldnt ever think of living anywhere else. Truly the hidden gem of the US. It's about as American as it comes too.

 

[801canesmxer]

As a native of S Fl how difficult was the climate change for you?

Not in Idaho but we moved to Utah 27 years ago from Hollywood. You get used to it fairly quickly and learn the importance of thermals in the winter. It's easy to get dehydrated in the summer. Temps are over 100 at times and you don't sweat as much so it's easy to forget to drink enough water. Most people hate humidity but my hands crack here constantly from the dryness and I feel at home right away when I go back to visit S. Fla.

 

[801canesmxer]

Not to bad actually. The winters in Boise are pretty mild and the summers get blazing hot in July and August. In my opinion, it's an amazing state. I wouldnt ever think of living anywhere else. Truly the hidden gem of the US. It's about as American as it comes too.

I had a Motocross race in Boise about 20 years ago or so and it was 112 degrees. I used gallon water jugs to cool off with and when I poured some on my head after one of my races I nearly burnt my scalp off. I also remember a certain Bowl game there where it was as cold as I remember being in my lifetime. I always liked going there and it is indeed a pretty state but I haven't been since my daughter had a volleyball tournament in Meridian in 2011.

 

[irwinn]

South Florida.

Ironically, my neighbors have recently become smitten with Bend, Oregon.

CA is one of the few places where you can sell and move to a different location and pocket cash in the process.

Moved from our Bedminster, NJ townhouse to 1,704 SF in Sun City, Texas in 2012. Paid off my mortgage and bought in Texas for cash, refurnished and invested the rest. for many of my many friends here, their last stop was California and they did much as I...most finding they had much more cash left to invest. Home has appreciated an average amount totaling about 40% over the 9 years. This becomes important when either my wife or I passes and the choice to sell is on the table.

I say stay or become diversified, own some fixed income and go for equities in various sectors. Right now I like financial, manufacturing and medical. In order to allay my concern for bubbles, I only consider those reflecting a P/E of under 17. I look for great companies that have taken a beating, even if it's their own fault...BA and JPM are two that I follow closely. I buy to hold, but these two, in this up market can go down a point or three in a given day. When that happens I buy a small, short term call and sell when the those points are recovered.

Not what you asked in your opening salvo, but my long range plan is to buy and hold companies with low P/E and earnings and revenue growth in the last several years and forecast for the near future. Other than BA, I stay away from companies that are not turning a profit. If the market goes down, I have faith that it will do as it has always done in my lifetime...come back stronger than ever.

I saw my son's investment account over the weekend and he's far more heavily invested than I. He's into equities 10-15%, mutual funds 40%, not much fixed income and is about 45% cash. He expects a reaction to current changes in national policies and expected tax hikes.

 

[honeyiv]

This thread is about financial planning as it relates to the jacketed-up US monetary policy.

Admission…I’m a conservative and have reached the conclusion that conservative monetary policy is dead and buried and has been for decades.

I just wanted to get that out of the way. My side (R) sucks at money management and so does the other side (D). However, this is not a political thread. PLEASE DON’T MAKE THIS ABOUT POLITICS. There are plenty of daily threads for that. I only mentioned D's & R's in order to set the tone that neither side seems interested in sound monetary policy when they are in power. Again, please, let’s have a discussion about personal investment strategy and not politics.

Do any of you have that feeling that “somehow this feels different this time?”

Are we in the “decline of the Roman Empire” stage from a financial standpoint?

Have you changed your long term investment strategy because you feel our current path is not sustainable?

Advice. Precious metals and Crypto. The path we are on is not sustainable. All we have is a printer. The money is worthless.

 

[BreakingCane]

Not to bad actually. The winters in Boise are pretty mild and the summers get blazing hot in July and August. In my opinion, it's an amazing state. I wouldnt ever think of living anywhere else. Truly the hidden gem of the US. It's about as American as it comes too.

Being American is considered racist these days, so protect your free state at all costs.

 

[dolcane]

Moved from our Bedminster, NJ townhouse to 1,704 SF in Sun City, Texas in 2012. Paid off my mortgage and bought in Texas for cash, refurnished and invested the rest. for many of my many friends here, their last stop was California and they did much as I...most finding they had much more cash left to invest. Home has appreciated an average amount totaling about 40% over the 9 years. This becomes important when either my wife or I passes and the choice to sell is on the table.

I say stay or become diversified, own some fixed income and go for equities in various sectors. Right now I like financial, manufacturing and medical. In order to allay my concern for bubbles, I only consider those reflecting a P/E of under 17. I look for great companies that have taken a beating, even if it's their own fault...BA and JPM are two that I follow closely. I buy to hold, but these two, in this up market can go down a point or three in a given day. When that happens I buy a small, short term call and sell when the those points are recovered.

Not what you asked in your opening salvo, but my long range plan is to buy and hold companies with low P/E and earnings and revenue growth in the last several years and forecast for the near future. Other than BA, I stay away from companies that are not turning a profit. If the market goes down, I have faith that it will do as it has always done in my lifetime...come back stronger than ever.

I saw my son's investment account over the weekend and he's far more heavily invested than I. He's into equities 10-15%, mutual funds 40%, not much fixed income and is about 45% cash. He expects a reaction to current changes in national policies and expected tax hikes.

It seems like everything the Fed has been doing the last 12 years should have been highly inflationary. But, inflation hasn't really shown it's ugly head, at least not from the official government statistics (cough, cough). I scratch my head, however, when I see prices at Home Depot and Publix.

All of this spending the last 12 months would seem to all but guaranty inflation. At some point it has to show up. The government can pay back debt at inflated values with cheap money borrowed at low rates.

I tell my kids to follow the same strategy...buy homes at a low fixed rate and pay back with cheaper money as wages rise.

I wonder...are we headed into a period like the late 1970's again?

 

[BreakingCane]

It seems like everything the Fed has been doing the last 12 years should have been highly inflationary. But, inflation hasn't really shown it's ugly head, at least not from the official government statistics (cough, cough). I scratch my head, however, when I see prices at Home Depot and Publix.

All of this spending the last 12 months would seem to all but guaranty inflation. At some point it has to show up. The government can pay back debt at inflated values with cheap money borrowed at low rates.

I tell my kids to follow the same strategy...buy homes at a low fixed rate and pay back with cheaper money as wages rise.

I wonder...are we headed into a period like the late 1970's again?

With 18-20% mortgage interest rates?

 

[dolcane]

With 18-20% mortgage interest rates?

I was thinking high inflation. Can it be avoided with the moves the Fed has been making. It seems like they are intentially destroying the dollar.

 

[BreakingCane]

I was thinking high inflation. Can it be avoided with the moves the Fed has been making. It seems like they are intentially destroying the dollar.

In the early to mid 80’s cash was king. Savings account interest was high and 1-year CDs were up to 11%

 

[dolcane]

In the early to mid 80’s cash was king. Savings account interest was high and 1-year CDs were up to 11%

I remember. The whole purpose of this thread is to get a sampling of where people think we are headed and what, if any, adjustments they are making to capitalize on what they see coming.

 

[BreakingCane]

I remember. The whole purpose of this thread is to get a sampling of where people think we are headed and what, if any, adjustments they are making to capitalize on what they see coming.

Well, if you’re paying attention, it may be king again. Provided what you say occurs.

 

[anon_xp0fbtbt18zd1]

I was thinking high inflation. Can it be avoided with the moves the Fed has been making. It seems like they are intentially destroying the dollar.

I have to admit I dont know much in this arena. But it feels like common sense would dictate that if you flood the country with cash you would de-value the dollar. Housing is overvalued, stock market has seemed artificial for some time. I think a correction is around the corner.

 

[BreakingCane]

I have to admit I dont know much in this arena. But it feels like common sense would dictate that if you flood the country with cash you would de-value the dollar. Housing is overvalued, stock market has seemed artificial for some time. I think a correction is around the corner.

Cruise stick will soar higher soon

 

[miamimike]

Advice. Precious metals and Crypto. The path we are on is not sustainable. All we have is a printer. The money is worthless.

Check out Eskay Mining Corp.(ESKYF). Up 375% since I purchased shares. Largest gold deposits in Canada.

 

[irwinn]

It seems like everything the Fed has been doing the last 12 years should have been highly inflationary. But, inflation hasn't really shown it's ugly head, at least not from the official government statistics (cough, cough). I scratch my head, however, when I see prices at Home Depot and Publix.

All of this spending the last 12 months would seem to all but guaranty inflation. At some point it has to show up. The government can pay back debt at inflated values with cheap money borrowed at low rates.

I tell my kids to follow the same strategy...buy homes at a low fixed rate and pay back with cheaper money as wages rise.

I wonder...are we headed into a period like the late 1970's again?

Not getting political here, just my point of view. At this point much of the stimulus money from the last administration has yet to be spent. As we individuals spend this latest and the other segments of stimulus enter the economy, we are certain to be experiencing a great deal more inflation than we've noticed at this point. This addition stimulus was not needed for that reason, our economy is stimulated. If Washington just stopped at the $1,400 put into individuals hands, it would have still have been more than enough. But the other 90+% of the just passed stimulus was/is just an excuse to establish current politicians' special interests. I'm not name calling or calling out here, just look at the content.

Working on true infrastucture, not the bullshit definition, but infrastrucure is commendable. But if that 'stimulates' an economy, why did it take over a decade-and WWII-to get ours going under Roosevelt?

 

[4210]

Ultimately, it really depends on your investment time horizon. Buying quality companies and periodically adding to your positions (buy the dip) over a couple of decades is usually a very good strategy, as long as you buy the right companies. That way you don't have to worry about recessions since the stock will simply bounce back when the market recovers. A young investor with many decades of investing time before them would obviously benefit more, but its also possible to make a great return in a decade or two. For example a $1k investment in Netflix in 2007 would have made you $51k if you cashed out a decade later. Its also important to time the market when its recovering from a recent recession. Avoid short term trading or day trading at all costs.

Actually this is terrible advice. GE and ATT were considered the bluest of the blues and they have sucked over time........the list of stocks that were once darlings is a mile long.
Buy ETFs like SPY and QQQ and continue to buy quarterly.
Thank me later.