Can we hit 100% Positive Percentage in FL Testing

[816_Cane]

We've been steadily trending upward over the last week in positive percentage of new cases with a new high of 16% from new cases yesterday. That resulted in 5,437 new cases, however 3,697 were from people 44 and under (68%) and 1,227 were from people 45 - 64 (23%). The bulk of the new cases is inconsequential to both hospitalizations and expected deaths.

Obviously more people with the virus could lead to more spread in the high risk population which we are starting to see a bit. However, I'm not convinced these cases didn't exist previously and were just never caught due to the ultra restrictive testing parameters. Even if we hit worst case scenario at 400k positive cases we will be around 12k deaths in FL compared to NY, who the revisionist historians are already commending on their approach and swift actions, has 32k deaths with the same amount of cases.

It may be a bumpy ride but maybe we should be hoping for 100% positive where everybody who gets tested gets it. If everyone has it we can get back to normal life and finally shut up all these doomsayers.

 

[honeyiv]

I am hoping for herd immunity.

 

[dmatt]

I am hoping for herd immunity.

A vaccine will be here long before we reach Herd Immunity which is approximately 225 million Americans contracting the virus..But keep dreaming..

 

[816_Cane]

A vaccine will be here long before we reach Herd Immunity which is approximately 225 million Americans contracting the virus..But keep dreaming..

The virus will die out on its own before we develop a safe vaccine..But keep dreaming..

 

[honeyiv]

A vaccine will be here long before we reach Herd Immunity which is approximately 225 million Americans contracting the virus..But keep dreaming..

Another prediction on what will happen with Covid19?? Yeah, because all the previous predictions have been right on point.

 

[krvanness]

We've been steadily trending upward over the last week in positive percentage of new cases with a new high of 16% from new cases yesterday. That resulted in 5,437 new cases, however 3,697 were from people 44 and under (68%) and 1,227 were from people 45 - 64 (23%). The bulk of the new cases is inconsequential to both hospitalizations and expected deaths.

Obviously more people with the virus could lead to more spread in the high risk population which we are starting to see a bit. However, I'm not convinced these cases didn't exist previously and were just never caught due to the ultra restrictive testing parameters. Even if we hit worst case scenario at 400k positive cases we will be around 12k deaths in FL compared to NY, who the revisionist historians are already commending on their approach and swift actions, has 32k deaths with the same amount of cases.

It may be a bumpy ride but maybe we should be hoping for 100% positive where everybody who gets tested gets it. If everyone has it we can get back to normal life and finally shut up all these doomsayers.

Spot on.

 

[krvanness]

The virus will die out on its own before we develop a safe vaccine..But keep dreaming..

Vaccine talk is just to keep the fear alive until it happens. It's a 'moving target' tool in the libs bag. I could care less if they ever get a vaccine.

 

[wilco]

OP. If NY hit 400k cases with a shutdown why do you expect 400k to be worst case in a state without a shutdown?

 

[816_Cane]

OP. If NY hit 400k cases with a shutdown why do you expect 400k to be worst case in a state without a shutdown?

I was referring to a worst case death predictions at 400k cases, not that we would max out at 400k cases.

I assume that is a worst case death scenario because it is an indisputable fact that, on average, a positive case today is not as alarming as a positive case 2 months ago. There’s a few reasons why:

1. Not only increased testing but the type of testing being done. When NY spiked only people who were exhibiting symptoms could be tested and in many cases even then you couldn't get a test unless you had extenuating circumstances (had traveled to a hot-spots, confirmed exposure with family member etc).

2. Similar to the above the demographic of the positive tests. Median age in FL is down almost 15 years of age in the last month. More positives in a demographic that can easily withstand the virus

3. Continuation of testing. People who would never have been tested before and have no reason to get tested on their own are being forced to test and testing positive. Plenty of demographics here with employers requiring a negative test to come back to work, at my wife’s 400 bed hospital (which seems to be the guidance of most hospitals) they are testing the following: all patients who come in for an elective procedure, stroke patients who there is a possibility they have to go radiology department, any trauma patients before any imaging diagnostics are done, and random spot checks throughout the hospital. All of these not only increase the positive cases but also increase the reported Covid hospitalizations when the underlying reason for being there is not Covid.

Even assuming the same death rate from the first 100k cases to the last 100k cases we would need almost 1m positive cases to equal NY levels of death.

 

[wilco]

I was referring to a worst case death predictions at 400k cases, not that we would max out at 400k cases.

I assume that is a worst case death scenario because it is an indisputable fact that, on average, a positive case today is not as alarming as a positive case 2 months ago. There’s a few reasons why:

1. Not only increased testing but the type of testing being done. When NY spiked only people who were exhibiting symptoms could be tested and in many cases even then you couldn't get a test unless you had extenuating circumstances (had traveled to a hot-spots, confirmed exposure with family member etc).

2. Similar to the above the demographic of the positive tests. Median age in FL is down almost 15 years of age in the last month. More positives in a demographic that can easily withstand the virus

3. Continuation of testing. People who would never have been tested before and have no reason to get tested on their own are being forced to test and testing positive. Plenty of demographics here with employers requiring a negative test to come back to work, at my wife’s 400 bed hospital (which seems to be the guidance of most hospitals) they are testing the following: all patients who come in for an elective procedure, stroke patients who there is a possibility they have to go radiology department, any trauma patients before any imaging diagnostics are done, and random spot checks throughout the hospital. All of these not only increase the positive cases but also increase the reported Covid hospitalizations when the underlying reason for being there is not Covid.

Even assuming the same death rate from the first 100k cases to the last 100k cases we would need almost 1m positive cases to equal NY levels of death.

Ok. But I guess my question is what do you expect to happen to avoid hitting 1m positive tests? NY shutdown weeks before its peak and just under 400k of NY infections occurred after the shutdown. Florida is on pace to hit NY's peak of infections in less than two weeks and there is no plan for an additional shutdown in sight. Not trying to argue just trying to figure out the logic.

 

[grbcane]

Ok. But I guess my question is what do you expect to happen to avoid hitting 1m positive tests? NY shutdown weeks before its peak and just under 400k of NY infections occurred after the shutdown. Florida is on pace to hit NY's peak of infections in less than two weeks and there is no plan for an additional shutdown in sight. Not trying to argue just trying to figure out the logic.

If you listened to the message of virologists at the beginning of this virus, which was hard to do with the politicians and press drowning them out. The main consequence of shutting down wasn’t to stop the virus, it was to prevent hospitals from being overwhelmed. All shutting down does is kick the can down the road, and slow herd immunity.

 

[816_Cane]

Ok. But I guess my question is what do you expect to happen to avoid hitting 1m positive tests? NY shutdown weeks before its peak and just under 400k of NY infections occurred after the shutdown. Florida is on pace to hit NY's peak of infections in less than two weeks and there is no plan for an additional shutdown in sight. Not trying to argue just trying to figure out the logic.

It is a well documented fact that viruses are seasonal and mutate to weaken themselves. There is already anecdotal evidence of that occurring all over the place.

Models I respect are estimating ~9k deaths in the state by Oct 1. For me that is very reasonable when you look at impact to the population as a whole and continuing to open the state up for business so that we all have a fighting chance to keep our jobs, education, houses, savings, businesses, health etc.

If you would like to read up on the various models out there and the varying degrees of accuracy, this MIT grad has created the most reliable model to date:

https://twitter.com/youyanggu
https://covid19-projections.com/

 

[wilco]

It is a well documented fact that viruses are seasonal and mutate to weaken themselves. There is already anecdotal evidence of that occurring all over the place.

Models I respect are estimating ~9k deaths in the state by Oct 1. For me that is very reasonable when you look at impact to the population as a whole and continuing to open the state up for business so that we all have a fighting chance to keep our jobs, education, houses, savings, businesses, health etc.

I don't disagree with the idea that viruses are seasonal and tend to die off in the summer. But that isn't usually because of a mutation. It is because people are outside more and the combination of UV Ray's and social distancing allow them to die down. The problem is those factors play a much stronger role in climate farther north where people spend more time inside during the late fall thru early spring. In most places in florda those factors play less of a role because if anything people spend less time outside during the summer. That could be an issue. Not an expert but just saying that the summer theory may not apply as evidenced by a spike in the south as summer starts.

 

[816_Cane]

I don't disagree with the idea that viruses are seasonal and tend to die off in the summer. But that isn't usually because of a mutation. It is because people are outside more and the combination of UV Ray's and social distancing allow them to die down. The problem is those factors play a much stronger role in climate farther north where people spend more time inside during the late fall thru early spring. In most places in florda those factors play less of a role because if anything people spend less time outside during the summer. That could be an issue. Not an expert but just saying that the summer theory may not apply as evidenced by a spike in the south as summer starts.

I agree that being outside, sun etc help but all viruses also mutate. I read this interesting article today which according to Scripps in FL they believe it may have mutated to become more infectious which could be the reason for our sudden uptick and high positive test percentage as well. But according to every even quasi scientific article and research I have read all mutations (I have seen claims from 14 total mutations observed to 600 mutations observed) create a weaker strain.

https://www.healthline.com/health-news/what-to-know-about-mutation-and-covid-19#More-infectious

And one more interesting Twitter follow if you care to look: https://twitter.com/EthicalSkeptic

 

[wilco]

I agree that being outside, sun etc help but all viruses also mutate. I read this interesting article today which according to Scripps in FL they believe it may have mutated to become more infectious which could be the reason for our sudden uptick and high positive test percentage as well. But according to every even quasi scientific article and research I have read all mutations (I have seen claims from 14 total mutations observed to 600 mutations observed) create a weaker strain.

https://www.healthline.com/health-news/what-to-know-about-mutation-and-covid-19#More-infectious

And one more interesting Twitter follow if you care to look: https://twitter.com/EthicalSkeptic

I appreciate the article. It was definitely informative. However, my takeaway from it was that while it seems like the virus is not mutating into something more deadly, it isn't getting less deadly but is getting more transmittable. For me that is a bit scary since it implies something that will have the same death rate but will spread more rapidly. Maybe mutations generally tend to make a virus less deadly but the fact that the current data says the current one isn't changing is worrying.

 

[816_Cane]

I appreciate the article. It was definitely informative. However, my takeaway from it was that while it seems like the virus is not mutating into something more deadly, it isn't getting less deadly but is getting more transmittable. For me that is a bit scary since it implies something that will have the same death rate but will spread more rapidly. Maybe mutations generally tend to make a virus less deadly but the fact that the current data says the current one isn't changing is worrying.

No doubt, a virus that increases its transmission could be bad news and is definitely cause for concern. Here is what a few doctors are saying in Italy about the mutations becoming less and less potent.

https://currently.att.yahoo.com/att...5HRJScAQIogS5T6f_RhbeY52hKTxuC6A4ibW4H0zBtCV1