Covid Deaths in Major FL Counties

[816_Cane]

Anyone who thinks the state should be shut down clearly has no actual idea of what is happening with coronavirus across our major population centers and further proves how out of touch with reality they are.

Below are the total deaths in our major population centers. @lou97 @dmatt @jdx2112 @cdwright40 give me 1 intelligent reason why the state should be shut down when it is beyond clear that the counties that have been the most open and least restrictive have fared MUCH better than the counties that continue to enforce restrictions.

Duval = 70 deaths / 957k residents
Orange = 63 deaths / 1.4m residents
Hillsborough = 163 deaths / 1.47m residents
Pinellas = 209 deaths / 975k residents
Palm = 569 deaths / 1.49m residents
Broward = 419 deaths / 1.95m residents
Dade = 1,068 deaths / 2.7m residents

Open Counties = 505 deaths / 4.8m residents / 105 deaths per million
Closed Counties = 2,056 deaths / 6.1m residents / 337 deaths per million

 

[bobbie jo]

Anyone who thinks the state should be down clearly has no actual idea of what is happening with coronavirus across our major population centers and further proves how out of touch with reality they are.

Below are the total deaths in our major population centers. @lou97 @dmatt @jdx2112 @cdwright40 give me 1 intelligent reason why the state should be shut down when it is beyond clear that the counties that have been the most open and least restrictive have fared MUCH better than the counties that continue to enforce restrictions.

Duval = 70 deaths / 957k residents
Orange = 63 deaths / 1.4m residents
Hillsborough = 163 deaths / 1.47m residents
Pinellas = 209 deaths / 975k residents
Palm = 569 deaths / 1.49m residents
Broward = 419 deaths / 1.95m residents
Dade = 1,068 deaths / 2.7m residents

The worlds biggest overplayed flu of all time. Trump had exposed China but they out played him on this one. Follow the money most do not. China has made billions of the COVID 19

 

[kamco360]

Anyone who thinks the state should be shut down clearly has no actual idea of what is happening with coronavirus across our major population centers and further proves how out of touch with reality they are.

Below are the total deaths in our major population centers. @lou97 @dmatt @jdx2112 @cdwright40 give me 1 intelligent reason why the state should be shut down when it is beyond clear that the counties that have been the most open and least restrictive have fared MUCH better than the counties that continue to enforce restrictions.

Duval = 70 deaths / 957k residents
Orange = 63 deaths / 1.4m residents
Hillsborough = 163 deaths / 1.47m residents
Pinellas = 209 deaths / 975k residents
Palm = 569 deaths / 1.49m residents
Broward = 419 deaths / 1.95m residents
Dade = 1,068 deaths / 2.7m residents

Open Counties = 505 deaths / 4.8m residents / 105 deaths per million
Closed Counties = 2,056 deaths / 6.1m residents / 337 deaths per million

So true there is virtually no evidence that lockdowns have worked anywhere, watch for them to say it worked in NY soon. Their reality is they have likely reached herd immunity in NYC metro.

 

[dmatt]

So true there is virtually no evidence that lockdowns have worked anywhere, watch for them to say it worked in NY soon. Their reality is they have likely reached herd immunity in NYC metro.

Herd Immunity is virtually impossible to achieve in NYC Metro, at least before a vaccine is ready .They need to have approximately 70% of the population infected to achieve it and so far NYC is at around 10%...

 

[816_Cane]

Herd Immunity is virtually impossible to achieve in NYC Metro, at least before a vaccine is ready .They need to have approximately 70% of the population infected to achieve it and so far NYC is at around 10%...

Both incorrect. Herd immunity is dependent on population density and is estimated to be 20 - 30% for coronavirus of which NYC is at at 25% based on IFR of .26 and 35% asymptomatic which is currently the CDCs best estimate.

Also, you forgot to answer the question. Why should Florida be shut down?

 

[CashvilleCane1]

Herd Immunity is virtually impossible to achieve in NYC Metro, at least before a vaccine is ready .They need to have approximately 70% of the population infected to achieve it and so far NYC is at around 10%...

Where did you pull that number from?

 

[801canesmxer]

Anyone who thinks the state should be shut down clearly has no actual idea of what is happening with coronavirus across our major population centers and further proves how out of touch with reality they are.

Below are the total deaths in our major population centers. @lou97 @dmatt @jdx2112 @cdwright40 give me 1 intelligent reason why the state should be shut down when it is beyond clear that the counties that have been the most open and least restrictive have fared MUCH better than the counties that continue to enforce restrictions.

Duval = 70 deaths / 957k residents
Orange = 63 deaths / 1.4m residents
Hillsborough = 163 deaths / 1.47m residents
Pinellas = 209 deaths / 975k residents
Palm = 569 deaths / 1.49m residents
Broward = 419 deaths / 1.95m residents
Dade = 1,068 deaths / 2.7m residents

Open Counties = 505 deaths / 4.8m residents / 105 deaths per million
Closed Counties = 2,056 deaths / 6.1m residents / 337 deaths per million

Kind of curious as to what the flu death numbers are in each of those counties every year.

 

[816_Cane]

Kind of curious as to what the flu death numbers are in each of those counties every year.

Not sure of exact number, but influenza and pneumonia are responsible for 1.5% of Florida's deaths each year with about 205k deaths total in the state (from 2017). If you divide each county by the FL population (21.5m) you can get their share of population and expected deaths per capita by multiplying that percentage by total deaths and then again by .015. Did it quickly for Orange County and it was ~200.

http://edr.state.fl.us/Content/population-demographics/reports/econographicnews-2018-v2.pdf

 

[lou97]

Anyone who thinks the state should be shut down clearly has no actual idea of what is happening with coronavirus across our major population centers and further proves how out of touch with reality they are.

Below are the total deaths in our major population centers. @lou97 @dmatt @jdx2112 @cdwright40 give me 1 intelligent reason why the state should be shut down when it is beyond clear that the counties that have been the most open and least restrictive have fared MUCH better than the counties that continue to enforce restrictions.

Duval = 70 deaths / 957k residents
Orange = 63 deaths / 1.4m residents
Hillsborough = 163 deaths / 1.47m residents
Pinellas = 209 deaths / 975k residents
Palm = 569 deaths / 1.49m residents
Broward = 419 deaths / 1.95m residents
Dade = 1,068 deaths / 2.7m residents

Open Counties = 505 deaths / 4.8m residents / 105 deaths per million
Closed Counties = 2,056 deaths / 6.1m residents / 337 deaths per million

It's a fair question. First, you assume I want everything shut down again and that is not the solution I support. Do I think people should wear masks and be socially distant? Yes I do. These are basic measures that we can all do to get this thing under control. We all want football, we all want bars and restaurants and any other business up and running. But for whatever reason we have a portion of our population that refuse to take these simple measures that would help us get to that point. Instead, they want to deny that anything is actually happening.

Second you mention death tolls being worse in orange, Hillsborough, Dade, Broward etc. I'll assume these numbers are accurate and I think that's to be expected as these are the counties with the highest populations in the state. More density equals more cases and more deaths. It's really that simple and I think we can all agree on that. Yes rural counties can be more liberal in their restrictions because they don't come into contact with near as people as the people who live in Orlando, Miami, Tampa etc. So while I assume the numbers are accurate I'd say it's not a worthwhile comparison because of the huge difference in population.

Third I will say this. Death tolls is a lagging indicator. We've had a huge spike over the last few weeks and many more people will die in the coming days and weeks. Additionally, it's been well documented that some people that don't die from the virus are left with what could be long term effects mainly in the lungs. So to only focus on death I think is understating the true impact that the virus is having on people.

Lastly, a lot of people seem to focus on the number of deaths and conclude that it's not a big deal. I disagree. We've lost close to 140,000 people and counting. To put that in perspective it is more than 9/11, the Vietnam war, the Iraq war, and the war in Afghanistan combined and it's not even close. So you can quote "low" death rates or pretend like this thing is no big deal but this has had a huge impact on many citizens of this country.

 

[816_Cane]

It's a fair question. First, you assume I want everything shut down again and that is not the solution I support. Do I think people should wear masks and be socially distant? Yes I do. These are basic measures that we can all do to get this thing under control. We all want football, we all want bars and restaurants and any other business up and running. But for whatever reason we have a portion of our population that refuse to take these simple measures that would help us get to that point. Instead, they want to deny that anything is actually happening.

Second you mention death tolls being worse in orange, Hillsborough, Dade, Broward etc. I'll assume these numbers are accurate and I think that's to be expected as these are the counties with the highest populations in the state. More density equals more cases and more deaths. It's really that simple and I think we can all agree on that. Yes rural counties can be more liberal in their restrictions because they don't come into contact with near as people as the people who live in Orlando, Miami, Tampa etc. So while I assume the numbers are accurate I'd say it's not a worthwhile comparison because of the huge difference in population.

Third I will say this. Death tolls is a lagging indicator. We've had a huge spike over the last few weeks and many more people will die in the coming days and weeks. Additionally, it's been well documented that some people that don't die from the virus are left with what could be long term effects mainly in the lungs. So to only focus on death I think is understating the true impact that the virus is having on people.

Lastly, a lot of people seem to focus on the number of deaths and conclude that it's not a big deal. I disagree. We've lost close to 140,000 people and counting. To put that in perspective it is more than 9/11, the Vietnam war, the Iraq war, and the war in Afghanistan combined and it's not even close. So you can quote "low" death rates or pretend like this thing is no big deal but this has had a huge impact on many citizens of this country.

The stark difference is how little deaths there were in the central / northern counties when compared to the southern counties and measuring like population centers. Only comparing like counties:

Open Counties = 505 deaths / 4.8m residents / 105 deaths per million
Closed Counties = 2,056 deaths / 6.1m residents / 337 deaths per million

Regardless of if deaths are a lagging indicator I would imagine the ratios would stay the same. Meaning whatever was done in SE Florida was vastly inferior to the rest of the state to cause such huge discrepancies. The only real difference in policy was staying closed longer and being more restrictive.

No one discredits people dying, but people die everyday and will continue to die everyday on schedule. The rest of us have lives to live. We had ~60 -80k deaths in the 2017-18 flu season and no one batted an eye. Seriously google "hospitals overwhelmed 2018". The situation was just as dire, if not more so, and no one gave a thought to it.

Since that year we've been followed by two very mild flu seasons of very little death. This is just nature catching up and we're going to see a lot more of these types of years as we progress due to the age of our population as a whole. It is nothing new.

 

[lou97]

The stark difference is how little deaths there were in the central / northern counties when compared to the southern counties and measuring like population centers. Only comparing like counties:

Open Counties = 505 deaths / 4.8m residents / 105 deaths per million
Closed Counties = 2,056 deaths / 6.1m residents / 337 deaths per million

Regardless of if deaths are a lagging indicator I would imagine the ratios would stay the same. Meaning whatever was done in SE Florida was vastly inferior to the rest of the state to cause such huge discrepancies. The only real difference in policy was staying closed longer and being more restrictive.

No one discredits people dying, but people die everyday and will continue to die everyday on schedule. The rest of us have lives to live. We had ~60 -80k deaths in the 2017-18 flu season and no one batted an eye. Seriously google "hospitals overwhelmed 2018". The situation was just as dire, if not more so, and no one gave a thought to it.

Since that year we've been followed by two very mild flu seasons of very little death. This is just nature catching up and we're going to see a lot more of these types of years as we progress due to the age of our population as a whole. It is nothing new.

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So you're saying places like Dade, Broward, Palm, Duval, Orange etc have more deaths than less populated counties because they have more restrictions in place? Assuming I'm interpreting that correctly I have to disagree. This virus spreads from human to human contact. It's no accident that most of the cases and ultimately the deaths are in places with more people. More people gives the virus more opportunity to spread to more people right? If we moved a bunch of people into one of these rural counties with no restrictions what do you think would happen? The virus would spread and there will be more deaths right? If you believe otherwise then you have to believe the virus doesn't spread from human to human contact or that wearing a mask and practicing social distancing has no impact on transmission.

And I agree that we have to live our lives which is why I disagree with a total shutdown. However, is it really too much to ask of us to simply put on a mask and maintain social distancing if it will save some lives? Yes most of us would be okay even if we got this but we all come in contact with numerous people on a daily basis that may not be okay if they get it. Do we value those lives so little that we refuse to take these simple measures? That's really the question at this point. We know how the virus spreads and we know wearing a mask and being socially distant reduces the rate of transmission. The question is are we willing to take these simple measures to protect the more vulnerable people. Personally I don't like wearing a mask and not being able to sit at a bar with my friends but I don't think it's too much to ask to protect the more vulnerable population. Maybe you do think it's too much of a burden and that's sad in my opinion.

 

[advarkas]

Some people died...

 

[TampaBayCane]

Where did you pull that number from?

the Mayo Clinic had an article stating most researchers say for Covid 70% would need to get it have a chance at herd immunity. I tried linking article but having issues. I just googled herd immunity and it’s About halfway down the page.

 

[CashvilleCane1]

the Mayo Clinic had an article stating most researchers say for Covid 70% would need to get it have a chance at herd immunity. I tried linking article but having issues. I just googled herd immunity and it’s About halfway down the page.

I was more curious about the 10% population who’s already contracted it. There’s no way to know that.

 

[TampaBayCane]

the Mayo Clinic had an article stating most researchers say for Covid 70% would need to get it have a chance at herd immunity.[/QUOT

I was more curious about the 10% population who’s already contracted it. There’s no way to know that.

Ah gotcha, I thought the 70% part seemed high for herd immunity but then saw that article. And I agree with you no way to know for sure on tu e 10%.

 

[kamco360]

the Mayo Clinic had an article stating most researchers say for Covid 70% would need to get it have a chance at herd immunity. I tried linking article but having issues. I just googled herd immunity and it’s About halfway down the page.

https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/ar...nity-may-occur-sooner-than-previously-thought

Swedish epidemiologist Anders Tegnell did a podcast in May stating he believed it to be at about 40-60%, I could not find this one but the basis of it was that the R factor (the rate a virus spreads) is about 1.7. The flu transmission is R factor is 1 and in a given year herd immunity is reached at about 25-40% depending on the strain in a given year and so his findings were Covid would be around 40-60%. This was in mid May so if anything given the rapidly declining death rates seen almost everywhere my guess would be that it is actually on the low end as the viral potency has already greatly diminished in most areas. Given that the CDC and WHO estimate 10-15 cases go diagnosed for every case that is diagnosed, it would be reasonable to say the NYC metro has about 4.5-6.8M total infected individuals. This would put the city well within the 40-60% margin and would explain why there is a rapid decrease in both death and confirmed cases. It would also make sense given the density of the city and its absolute reliance for public transportation and elevators to move people about.

 

[816_Cane]

So you're saying places like Dade, Broward, Palm, Duval, Orange etc have more deaths than less populated counties because they have more restrictions in place? Assuming I'm interpreting that correctly I have to disagree. This virus spreads from human to human contact. It's no accident that most of the cases and ultimately the deaths are in places with more people. More people gives the virus more opportunity to spread to more people right? If we moved a bunch of people into one of these rural counties with no restrictions what do you think would happen? The virus would spread and there will be more deaths right? If you believe otherwise then you have to believe the virus doesn't spread from human to human contact or that wearing a mask and practicing social distancing has no impact on transmission.

And I agree that we have to live our lives which is why I disagree with a total shutdown. However, is it really too much to ask of us to simply put on a mask and maintain social distancing if it will save some lives? Yes most of us would be okay even if we got this but we all come in contact with numerous people on a daily basis that may not be okay if they get it. Do we value those lives so little that we refuse to take these simple measures? That's really the question at this point. We know how the virus spreads and we know wearing a mask and being socially distant reduces the rate of transmission. The question is are we willing to take these simple measures to protect the more vulnerable people. Personally I don't like wearing a mask and not being able to sit at a bar with my friends but I don't think it's too much to ask to protect the more vulnerable population. Maybe you do think it's too much of a burden and that's sad in my opinion.

Look at the deaths in Duval, Orange, Hillsborough, and Pinellas. Those are counties that had limited restrictions and opened early. ~100 deaths / 1m residents

Now look at deaths in Palm, Broward, and Dade. Counties that have had the most restrictions and opened up later than the rest of the state. They have ~300 deaths / 1m residents.

comparing apples to apples the more restrictive counties (Dade, Broward, Palm) have done 3x worse than the less restrictive counties (Duval, Orange, Hillsborough, Pinellas).

Hopefully that clears up confusion. I am not talking about rural counties at all.

 

[lou97]

Look at the deaths in Duval, Orange, Hillsborough, and Pinellas. Those are counties that had limited restrictions and opened early. ~100 deaths / 1m residents

Now look at deaths in Palm, Broward, and Dade. Counties that have had the most restrictions and opened up later than the rest of the state. They have ~300 deaths / 1m residents.

comparing apples to apples the more restrictive counties (Dade, Broward, Palm) have done 3x worse than the less restrictive counties (Duval, Orange, Hillsborough, Pinellas).

Hopefully that clears up confusion. I am not talking about rural counties at all.

Gotcha. I misunderstood your original post. I see what you're saying. However, I don't agree with the correlation you're making. First of all I won't pretend to know what the restrictions were and at what time for each of those counties. But ill assume you're correct when you say Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach were more restrictive. So the question is did these restrictions lead to more deaths in those areas? I'm assuming you're saying that it did and I disagree.

Now assuming your death tolls are accurate it's valid to ask why the deaths were higher in the more restrictive counties. I don't know the answer to that. But there could be a wide range of possibilities. Maybe the more restrictive counties have more nursing homes, maybe the age of infected people in south Florida are older than say Duval county. Maybe patients in one hospital in Dade county got better healthcare than a hospital in Pinnelis county. There are numerous possibilies for why the numbers are what they are.

Now let's look at restrictions. It seems like you're trying to say these restrictions don't help contain the virus. Things like banning large gatherings, putting capacity limits on restaurants/bars, wearing masks, social distancing etc. I think you'll agree that the virus transmits from human to human contact. Now all the measures I mentioned above reduce human to human contact. They just do. You can't really argue that they don't. And I think common sense tells you that a virus that spreads via human to human contact will be less likely to spread with those restrictive measures in place. If you believe the virus spreads via human to human contact would you have lower risk in a restaurant with 25% capacity or 100% capacity? To believe what you're saying you basically have to believe that people being closer together has no impact on the transmission rate of a virus that spreads via human contact. I don't buy it.

 

[BreakingCane]

Herd Immunity is virtually impossible to achieve in NYC Metro, at least before a vaccine is ready .They need to have approximately 70% of the population infected to achieve it and so far NYC is at around 10%...

You’re always wrong.

 

[lou97]

Look at the deaths in Duval, Orange, Hillsborough, and Pinellas. Those are counties that had limited restrictions and opened early. ~100 deaths / 1m residents

Now look at deaths in Palm, Broward, and Dade. Counties that have had the most restrictions and opened up later than the rest of the state. They have ~300 deaths / 1m residents.

comparing apples to apples the more restrictive counties (Dade, Broward, Palm) have done 3x worse than the less restrictive counties (Duval, Orange, Hillsborough, Pinellas).

Hopefully that clears up confusion. I am not talking about rural counties at all.

I think another question worth asking is why other countries around the world have had success using the exact same measures. Almost every country in the world implemented restrictions to some degree or another and with the exception of a few hot spots, including the US, most countries have this thing under control. Again they used the same restrictions as we did.

 

[816_Cane]

I think another question worth asking is why other countries around the world have had success using the exact same measures. Almost every country in the world implemented restrictions to some degree or another and with the exception of a few hot spots, including the US, most countries have this thing under control. Again they used the same restrictions as we did.

I think that’s pretty simple. I don’t believe the data from countries like India, China, Mexico, Middle East etc. Many of these places are so war torn and impoverished they have no clue what disease people have or why people die.

Our rates are pretty comparable to many similar countries in the EU. You have to look at per capita as well since we are so much larger in size that these countries.

Finally, not all countries count deaths the same. This has really screwed the perception of Sweden as they count all coronavirus deaths where a country like Finland only counts it if you die in a hospital.

 

[lou97]

I think that’s pretty simple. I don’t believe the data from countries like India, China, Mexico, Middle East etc. Many of these places are so war torn and impoverished they have no clue what disease people have or why people die.

Our rates are pretty comparable to many similar countries in the EU. You have to look at per capita as well since we are so much larger in size that these countries.

Finally, not all countries count deaths the same. This has really screwed the perception of Sweden as they count all coronavirus deaths where a country like Finland only counts it if you die in a hospital.

I know I know. All the numbers are fake. It's the best the Trump defenders can come up with. And our numbers are clearly worse than the EU.