Not a flame. Just trying to start reasonable conversations as to where we are in the presidential race.
Two new national polls released today both show Biden leading nationally, by 14 or 9 points respectively. Biden leads in the 6 critical battleground states as well. Implications?
JOE:
*Has done well staying in the basement. Fewer gaffes. Most importantly, he’s polling well with all demographics and has very few people who hate him (unlike Hillary). Support for him is more “accepting” than “enthusiastic”.
* Could he blow his lead? Sure. Commit gaffe after gaffe. Look fragile or get sick. Pick a hated VP running mate. Fail miserably in the upcoming debates.
TRUMP:
* Lost big points on his perceived mishandling of the coronavirus and divisive approach to racial/social issues. Losing strength among traditional Republicans who gave him a chance in the 2016 election. Very weak among Blacks, Hispanics and younger people.
* His 2016 MAGA message worked well as an underdog against the establishment. Now, he is the establishment. How do preach anger and resentment against the coronavirus or criticize BLM marchers without creating a backlash?
* Can he win? Of course. Joe might just do himself in. Trump supporters are very loyal and enthusiastic. His following among white males > 50 years old is strong as it is among non college graduates. Is that group of white people big enough to win?
Where from here?
Trump shows no inclination to widen his base of support. Rather, he is circling the wagons and doubling down. His own gaffes with the coronavirus (“let’s slow down testing”) and hardened position vs protesters and athletes who kneel will block expansion of his base.
Joe could lose this, however, if he comes out of the basement with undisciplined and scattered messages and mistakes. A sleepy Joe who forgets stuff and is unsteady during the campaign could self destruct.
What's your preference/ what’s your prediction?
Two new national polls released today both show Biden leading nationally, by 14 or 9 points respectively. Biden leads in the 6 critical battleground states as well. Implications?
JOE:
*Has done well staying in the basement. Fewer gaffes. Most importantly, he’s polling well with all demographics and has very few people who hate him (unlike Hillary). Support for him is more “accepting” than “enthusiastic”.
* Could he blow his lead? Sure. Commit gaffe after gaffe. Look fragile or get sick. Pick a hated VP running mate. Fail miserably in the upcoming debates.
TRUMP:
* Lost big points on his perceived mishandling of the coronavirus and divisive approach to racial/social issues. Losing strength among traditional Republicans who gave him a chance in the 2016 election. Very weak among Blacks, Hispanics and younger people.
* His 2016 MAGA message worked well as an underdog against the establishment. Now, he is the establishment. How do preach anger and resentment against the coronavirus or criticize BLM marchers without creating a backlash?
* Can he win? Of course. Joe might just do himself in. Trump supporters are very loyal and enthusiastic. His following among white males > 50 years old is strong as it is among non college graduates. Is that group of white people big enough to win?
Where from here?
Trump shows no inclination to widen his base of support. Rather, he is circling the wagons and doubling down. His own gaffes with the coronavirus (“let’s slow down testing”) and hardened position vs protesters and athletes who kneel will block expansion of his base.
Joe could lose this, however, if he comes out of the basement with undisciplined and scattered messages and mistakes. A sleepy Joe who forgets stuff and is unsteady during the campaign could self destruct.
What's your preference/ what’s your prediction?
