https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1286457920301416
The Fix: A New National Plan
We have an option. Through federal leadership and guidance, we could bring our entire nation towards a level of containment sufficient to safely open schools, colleges, and even host sporting events. We could return Americans safely to the workplace.
To do this by October 1 we now need to do the following:
•
Shape a national plan with an objective of a national level of containment.
•
Some experts benchmark containment as one case per million residents per day, but we might select less strict criteria.
•
Upon achieving this level, it would be possible to reopen schools, colleges, and businesses safely, provided a full and functioning health system is in place.
•
With containment, contact tracing actually becomes feasible, whereas this is not the case currently across most of the nation.
•
Each state would either agree or be required to meet that containment benchmark.
•
Some of these states, such as those in northern New England (NH VT ME) might already be close to that level. Others, such as FL TX AZ may require aggressive stay-at-home measures.
•
Starting October 1, we could begin a national re-opening for schools, colleges, and even outdoor high school (“Friday Night Lights”), collegiate and professional sports.
We have few choices
Doing nothing or continuing a strategy based on states in the lead will only invite further tragedy. By late in the fall every American will personally know someone who is severely ill or hospitalized with COVID19. Hospitals across America will be overrun, hospital personnel will become sick in droves, and we might experience 300,000 deaths by the end of 2020. Moreover, we won’t have a safe and effective COVID19 vaccine anytime soon. My earliest timetable is the middle of 2021, and even then, that timeframe would be a world land speed record.
This will become one of the most unstable times in the history in the United States.
Implementing the October 1 plan will force America to make some difficult choices, but none as devastating as the mounting deaths if we choose to simply stay the course.
The Fix: A New National Plan
We have an option. Through federal leadership and guidance, we could bring our entire nation towards a level of containment sufficient to safely open schools, colleges, and even host sporting events. We could return Americans safely to the workplace.
To do this by October 1 we now need to do the following:
•
Shape a national plan with an objective of a national level of containment.
•
Some experts benchmark containment as one case per million residents per day, but we might select less strict criteria.
•
Upon achieving this level, it would be possible to reopen schools, colleges, and businesses safely, provided a full and functioning health system is in place.
•
With containment, contact tracing actually becomes feasible, whereas this is not the case currently across most of the nation.
•
Each state would either agree or be required to meet that containment benchmark.
•
Some of these states, such as those in northern New England (NH VT ME) might already be close to that level. Others, such as FL TX AZ may require aggressive stay-at-home measures.
•
Starting October 1, we could begin a national re-opening for schools, colleges, and even outdoor high school (“Friday Night Lights”), collegiate and professional sports.
We have few choices
Doing nothing or continuing a strategy based on states in the lead will only invite further tragedy. By late in the fall every American will personally know someone who is severely ill or hospitalized with COVID19. Hospitals across America will be overrun, hospital personnel will become sick in droves, and we might experience 300,000 deaths by the end of 2020. Moreover, we won’t have a safe and effective COVID19 vaccine anytime soon. My earliest timetable is the middle of 2021, and even then, that timeframe would be a world land speed record.
This will become one of the most unstable times in the history in the United States.
Implementing the October 1 plan will force America to make some difficult choices, but none as devastating as the mounting deaths if we choose to simply stay the course.
