Another long 2 cents thread.....read or don't read, but ..... you MUST get a guy who has been a head coach before....period.
We evaluate coaches based on bias. Blake James did and 90% of us do. We think we know the "right guy" and we think we know who is not "the right guy". There are common traits that indicate success or failure and the best indicator is a guy who has done it successfully prior. So when we go looking again, ...which we will as I will explain in paragraph 1, we need to work down the list situational and methodically based on current situation and traits and not an emotional bias.
Was Manny Diaz a good choice. No we should (and many did) see ineffectiveness coming but he also could have overcome his deficiencies, and in some ways he has. He loves Miami and wants to be successful right here. But it was the wrong time. He has made moves to cover up deficiencies in the program, bringing in new people and trying to do what he knows with "TNM", chains and energy.
But he does not have the clout which resonates with the kids and also he does not have the clout of ability to see exceptional traits and acquire quality coaches, nor does he have the history or credibility as a HC, but mainly he does not have the ability to instill his vision despite his desire and what may be an accurate vision of the problems. Some guys moving forward will have that due to their experience and history and some guys will just have "it". A lot of this is about timing and "fit" at whatever time we move on.
So this next hire will be about timing, fit, and commitment of the board. Assuming we have commitment as if we do not then it does not matter who is hired, then you can work down the list.
Tier 1
Mario. Might be a little early but the window might be open enough for him to consider leaving a very good situation. His history as an alum and background obviously make this attractive going forward. To get him it would require a likely shake up at the top of the Admin tree. This would be bold and there are issues with timing and where he is in his career path right now. He is probably the safest long term guy if he would entertain the move.
Urban: The signs are there for a one and done. He is built for the college game and the word is he is realizing that. He obviously has the passion to coach and this would be a hand in glove move for him. He is a shitbird but at this point we are not accounting for bias.The timing depending on his commitment (which he has shown in his history, ain't much) to Jacksonville and a contract might be the best of the "first tier" guys...but he will not reveal that and lose leverage (Business 101). He also comes with the risk of doing this again in 2-3 years, as he does not take losing well.
Greg Shiano: There are some things behind the scenes at Rutgers that might influence his availability, and he get a lot out of his kids. He is likely someone that would entertain moving to UM, but he is far from a sure thing despite being on the Tier 1 list. He is known to "coach up" but can he recruit and develop upper end kids with loftier expectations and loftier ego's...can he manage that...also his staffs have not been overly impressive. I would put him fourth on the top tier list.
Lane Kiffin: It is a tough road in the SEC, he knows it, he has an ego, he wants a Natty and likely knows he can get it here. He has grown as a coach and although still arrogant somewhat he does seem to exercise better self control and has grown. He has a little "Spurrier" in him and he may view this as his destination rather that part of the process at this point. I believe the timing would be right despite it being a quick turn for him. He has also become a lot better at putting together a staff and keeping his shit together. He seems to have matured so I would put him at the top of the list actually and make myself eliminate him and Urban if Mario said no.
I rank the top tier as 1-4; Mario, Kiffin, Urban, and Schiano. I personally think Kiffin and Urban are the two highest possibilities based on what happens the next 2-4 weeks at Ole Miss and Jacksonville.
The traits you look for if you go tier 2 or tier 3 is organizational ability, Credibility to put a staff together, how personality relates to todays 4/5 star recruits, ability to deliver at a HC level, maturity of approach, scheme and consistency of scheme (or ability to adapt scheme), ability and desire to function in a tough media environment, ability to get more out of a team and someone who's teams have not shown they play down as that is a negative emotion indicator, and guys who fight above their class but still play the next play and win some games.. Without going into guys specifically I think a few jump out.....Stoops, Drinkwitz, Campbell, and Fickell...but looking at the traits I think two names to put at the top of the tier 2 list are Gus Malzahn and Billy Napier. I would follow with Stoops, Cambell, Fickell and Drinkwitz. I might also take a swing at Scott Satterfield and judge his interest.
If you go tier 3 then your looking at the Jamey Chadwells, Will Healy, Jeff Hafleys, Lance Leapold, Chris Kleiman, Kalen Debour and Karl Dorrell. Top of the Tier 3 list would be IMHO Will Healy and Lance Leapold.
We evaluate coaches based on bias. Blake James did and 90% of us do. We think we know the "right guy" and we think we know who is not "the right guy". There are common traits that indicate success or failure and the best indicator is a guy who has done it successfully prior. So when we go looking again, ...which we will as I will explain in paragraph 1, we need to work down the list situational and methodically based on current situation and traits and not an emotional bias.
Was Manny Diaz a good choice. No we should (and many did) see ineffectiveness coming but he also could have overcome his deficiencies, and in some ways he has. He loves Miami and wants to be successful right here. But it was the wrong time. He has made moves to cover up deficiencies in the program, bringing in new people and trying to do what he knows with "TNM", chains and energy.
But he does not have the clout which resonates with the kids and also he does not have the clout of ability to see exceptional traits and acquire quality coaches, nor does he have the history or credibility as a HC, but mainly he does not have the ability to instill his vision despite his desire and what may be an accurate vision of the problems. Some guys moving forward will have that due to their experience and history and some guys will just have "it". A lot of this is about timing and "fit" at whatever time we move on.
So this next hire will be about timing, fit, and commitment of the board. Assuming we have commitment as if we do not then it does not matter who is hired, then you can work down the list.
Tier 1
Mario. Might be a little early but the window might be open enough for him to consider leaving a very good situation. His history as an alum and background obviously make this attractive going forward. To get him it would require a likely shake up at the top of the Admin tree. This would be bold and there are issues with timing and where he is in his career path right now. He is probably the safest long term guy if he would entertain the move.
Urban: The signs are there for a one and done. He is built for the college game and the word is he is realizing that. He obviously has the passion to coach and this would be a hand in glove move for him. He is a shitbird but at this point we are not accounting for bias.The timing depending on his commitment (which he has shown in his history, ain't much) to Jacksonville and a contract might be the best of the "first tier" guys...but he will not reveal that and lose leverage (Business 101). He also comes with the risk of doing this again in 2-3 years, as he does not take losing well.
Greg Shiano: There are some things behind the scenes at Rutgers that might influence his availability, and he get a lot out of his kids. He is likely someone that would entertain moving to UM, but he is far from a sure thing despite being on the Tier 1 list. He is known to "coach up" but can he recruit and develop upper end kids with loftier expectations and loftier ego's...can he manage that...also his staffs have not been overly impressive. I would put him fourth on the top tier list.
Lane Kiffin: It is a tough road in the SEC, he knows it, he has an ego, he wants a Natty and likely knows he can get it here. He has grown as a coach and although still arrogant somewhat he does seem to exercise better self control and has grown. He has a little "Spurrier" in him and he may view this as his destination rather that part of the process at this point. I believe the timing would be right despite it being a quick turn for him. He has also become a lot better at putting together a staff and keeping his shit together. He seems to have matured so I would put him at the top of the list actually and make myself eliminate him and Urban if Mario said no.
I rank the top tier as 1-4; Mario, Kiffin, Urban, and Schiano. I personally think Kiffin and Urban are the two highest possibilities based on what happens the next 2-4 weeks at Ole Miss and Jacksonville.
The traits you look for if you go tier 2 or tier 3 is organizational ability, Credibility to put a staff together, how personality relates to todays 4/5 star recruits, ability to deliver at a HC level, maturity of approach, scheme and consistency of scheme (or ability to adapt scheme), ability and desire to function in a tough media environment, ability to get more out of a team and someone who's teams have not shown they play down as that is a negative emotion indicator, and guys who fight above their class but still play the next play and win some games.. Without going into guys specifically I think a few jump out.....Stoops, Drinkwitz, Campbell, and Fickell...but looking at the traits I think two names to put at the top of the tier 2 list are Gus Malzahn and Billy Napier. I would follow with Stoops, Cambell, Fickell and Drinkwitz. I might also take a swing at Scott Satterfield and judge his interest.
If you go tier 3 then your looking at the Jamey Chadwells, Will Healy, Jeff Hafleys, Lance Leapold, Chris Kleiman, Kalen Debour and Karl Dorrell. Top of the Tier 3 list would be IMHO Will Healy and Lance Leapold.
