Was great to have Tua Time for my Dolphins this past Sunday, but I'm excited about The U getting back in business tonight.
We're basically at the midpoint of the Season. 5-1, #10/#11 in the Polls, and 4-1 in the ACC. Again, no off-season, no Spring Game, a new HC, a new QB, a new starting HB, an unproven WR core, and lack of depth at CB. 4 out of our 5 wins are by double digits, and our only loss, albeit a blowout loss, was to the #1 team in the country with the #1 Overall Pick.
Some of you have argued that this 5 -1, #10/#11 ranked team is a "mirage". No it's not a mirage; to date, we've earned our wins, and we've earned our ranking. Obviously, we hvae to keep proving ourselves, and we stil have 3 quality/competitive opponents on our schedule in N.C. State, VIrginia Tech, and North Carolina. I like where we are at right now, and am cautiously optimistic we can continue to improve.
Again, let's try to maintain some perspective.
Miami:
Offense - Our Offense is ranked 45th in 3rd Down Conversion % (44%), 33rd in Red Zone Scoring (90.48%), and 39th in Points Per Game (32.3). However, we ARE top-10, 10th, in Yards Per Play (5.7). Certainly, both the Clemson and UVA game have hurt our Offensive stats. Clemson is Clemson, and the UVA Game (which I re-watched, studying multiple plays multiple times on that re-watch) was more about player execution than the gameplan itself. I am confident that Rhett will make some adjustments have this Offense back on track tonight.
Outside of Harley's stellar performance against UVA, we have lacked quality WR play. The leaders in Receiving Touchdowns this year to date have 3 TDs- which are the Tight Ends, Brevin and Mallory. Brevin Jordan's return cannot be understated - he is T-2nd in Receptions and 2nd in Reception Yards, and has the skill sets to to vertically stretch the field in ways which Mallory, despite being a SOLID TE himself, cannot. In the UVA game, Rhett was forced to make Mallory help Zion (who continues to be a liability at LT) protect the left side of the OL, so Mallory became more irrelevant as that game progressed. Fortunately, Harley stepped up. Against N.C. State, with both Mallory and Brevin getting snaps, and Harley hopefully being the #1 WR we need, we'll see some more impact plays in the passing game.
As far as running the ball, AGAIN, this OL has run blocked well BETWEEN the 20-yard lines, and opened up quality lanes for Cam, Knighton, and Chaney. The UVA film proved that. The reason why our overall rushing yards per attempt is LOWER right now (4.3 Yards Per Attempt, 51st) is because once we are in the Red Zone, teams crash the box because we have no big Red Zone WR target, Brevin has been out, and Mallory again has been forced to block more than catch. Between the 20-yard lines, we are averaging almost 6.0 yards per rushing attempt. In both our own Red Zone and our opponent's Red Zone, we are around 3.0/3.1 yards per rushing attempt. Let's see what happens tonight.
Defense - In 4 out of 6 games, we have held teams to LESS than 20 Points. That is remarkable, given that even poorer teams still typically muster 20-24 points per game. Our Defense comes into this game ranked 39th in Opponents Yards Per Play (5.1), 22nd in Defensive 3rd Down Conversion % (33.31%), and 28th in Points Per Game (22.2). Defense has done more than enough to date, and if it continues to average these numbers, then I project us to have a solid 9-10 win season and a good look at the ACC CG.
Bubba Bolden has had a SOLID season. He leads the team in tackles (38), has 3 Forced Fumbles, 1 INT, and 1 Sack. He has NOT been "average" as some posters have argued in other threads. Bubba is our best secondary player by a mile, the second best defensive player behind Roche (who actually has both more sacks and tackles than Phillips), and is an important leader. Even though Jaelan and Quincy get most of the props on the DL, both Ford and Slivera have played well so far this season.
Keep an eye out for GILBERT FRIERSON this game. He had a SOLID performance against UVA, and in my opinion is the best hybrid S-LB player on this roster. Depsite weighing a lean 205 lbs, he is THIRD on this team in Tackles (26) despite limited reps, has SIX tackles for loss out of those 26, 1 Fumble Recovery, and despite some miscues in pass coverage, has made some nice plays. I expect him to play a lot of reps against N.C. State's shotgun spread offense which uses a lot of flex and mark Zonovan Knight.
Special Teams - Borregales is 15th in Field Goals made per game (1.7) and 25th in FG Percentage (90.91%). Hedley has been equally dominant, ranking 3rd in Punting Average (46.8 Yards Per Punt). Ball security has been better with Restrepo, and hopefully he can shorten the field for our Offense tonight on the road.
N.C. State
Offense - Offense has been up and down. VT and UNC held N.C. State's Offense to 24 and 21 points, respectively. The Wolfpack are 45th in Scoring Offense (31.5 PPG), and rely more on the passing game, ranking 34th in Passing Offense (262.0 YPG) than they do the running game, ranking 81st in Rushing Offense (133.1 YPG). N.C. State, like UVA, has had QB issues. Hockman started the season at QB, and looked good in my film review of their game against Wake Forest. However, he had too many inconsistent performances, and was benched for Leary. Leary looked MUCH better at QB, but sustained a season ending surgery against Duke in the 3rd Quarter. Now Hockman starts again at QB- big break for us. I expect our Defense to have 1-2 Interceptions this game. N.C. State runs a lot of flex formations from the Shotgun Spread, some up-tempo, and emphasizes the shorter passing game. Zonovan Knight is a B/B+ level RB, so the LBs need to step up against him. He has over 500 yards of total offense to date, averaging about 6 yards per rushing attempt and 8 yards per reception.
Defense - Defense is below average. Gave up 42 to Wake Forest, 45 to Virginia Tech and 48 to UNC. The Wolfpack rank 80th in Scoring Defense (34.20 PPG), 34th in Defensive 3rd Down Conversion % (34.4%), and 46th in Red Zone Scoring Defense (81.1%). So, this game coming off a bye is a GREAT opportunity for our Offense to have solid success. NC State's Defense does have 6 INTs to date, and that ranks T-6th, so King needs to make good throwing decisions.
N.C. State's Defense is a 3-4, and based on what I've seen in their games, doesn't blitz a lot on either 1st or 2nd Down- they tend to blitz more on 3rd Down when it is an obvious passing situation. Not a lot of "wow" with N.C. State's front-7, and FOUR out of the front-7 are UNDERCLASSMEN, so I expect our Offense to be able to run well and get into favorabel down-and-distance situations. The ONE GUY to keep an eye on is Peyton Wilson- he leads the Wolfpack Defense with 53 Tackles, has great lateral speed sideline to sideline, and can cover the pass well in zone, already logging 3 INTs. As a whole, N.C. State's Defense can give up a TON of passing yardage playing zone defense, so King needs to step up.
Overall - We are a 10.5 point favorite, but I see this as a tough, tight game. Since Manny became HC, our teams have hardly looked dominant coming out of a bye. I do think that we will have success early on Offense scoring both a TD and FG in the 1st Quarter. 10-3 Miami End 1st Quarter. Second Quarter, I think that our Offense will stall a litte, and I feel there may be an INT by King or a fumble by a RB/WR. N.C. State level the game at 10-10 with a shorter field TD, and we add a FG right before Halftime. 13-10 Miami Halftime. Third Quarter, I think that we'll see some more slugglish play, with the teams exchanging FGs. 16-13 Miami End Third Quarter. 4th Quarter I have a feeling things will really start to light up on both sides. Think there will be a Defensive TD for us somewhere to make it 23-13 early in the 4th Quarter. N.C. State gets a FG, and somewhere middle 4th Quarter we get a homerun TD play to make it 30-16. I think that N.C. State gets a TD to make it a tough, tight game at 30-23, but we hang on to that score late.
Miami 30 - N.C. State 23
We're basically at the midpoint of the Season. 5-1, #10/#11 in the Polls, and 4-1 in the ACC. Again, no off-season, no Spring Game, a new HC, a new QB, a new starting HB, an unproven WR core, and lack of depth at CB. 4 out of our 5 wins are by double digits, and our only loss, albeit a blowout loss, was to the #1 team in the country with the #1 Overall Pick.
Some of you have argued that this 5 -1, #10/#11 ranked team is a "mirage". No it's not a mirage; to date, we've earned our wins, and we've earned our ranking. Obviously, we hvae to keep proving ourselves, and we stil have 3 quality/competitive opponents on our schedule in N.C. State, VIrginia Tech, and North Carolina. I like where we are at right now, and am cautiously optimistic we can continue to improve.
Again, let's try to maintain some perspective.
Miami:
Offense - Our Offense is ranked 45th in 3rd Down Conversion % (44%), 33rd in Red Zone Scoring (90.48%), and 39th in Points Per Game (32.3). However, we ARE top-10, 10th, in Yards Per Play (5.7). Certainly, both the Clemson and UVA game have hurt our Offensive stats. Clemson is Clemson, and the UVA Game (which I re-watched, studying multiple plays multiple times on that re-watch) was more about player execution than the gameplan itself. I am confident that Rhett will make some adjustments have this Offense back on track tonight.
Outside of Harley's stellar performance against UVA, we have lacked quality WR play. The leaders in Receiving Touchdowns this year to date have 3 TDs- which are the Tight Ends, Brevin and Mallory. Brevin Jordan's return cannot be understated - he is T-2nd in Receptions and 2nd in Reception Yards, and has the skill sets to to vertically stretch the field in ways which Mallory, despite being a SOLID TE himself, cannot. In the UVA game, Rhett was forced to make Mallory help Zion (who continues to be a liability at LT) protect the left side of the OL, so Mallory became more irrelevant as that game progressed. Fortunately, Harley stepped up. Against N.C. State, with both Mallory and Brevin getting snaps, and Harley hopefully being the #1 WR we need, we'll see some more impact plays in the passing game.
As far as running the ball, AGAIN, this OL has run blocked well BETWEEN the 20-yard lines, and opened up quality lanes for Cam, Knighton, and Chaney. The UVA film proved that. The reason why our overall rushing yards per attempt is LOWER right now (4.3 Yards Per Attempt, 51st) is because once we are in the Red Zone, teams crash the box because we have no big Red Zone WR target, Brevin has been out, and Mallory again has been forced to block more than catch. Between the 20-yard lines, we are averaging almost 6.0 yards per rushing attempt. In both our own Red Zone and our opponent's Red Zone, we are around 3.0/3.1 yards per rushing attempt. Let's see what happens tonight.
Defense - In 4 out of 6 games, we have held teams to LESS than 20 Points. That is remarkable, given that even poorer teams still typically muster 20-24 points per game. Our Defense comes into this game ranked 39th in Opponents Yards Per Play (5.1), 22nd in Defensive 3rd Down Conversion % (33.31%), and 28th in Points Per Game (22.2). Defense has done more than enough to date, and if it continues to average these numbers, then I project us to have a solid 9-10 win season and a good look at the ACC CG.
Bubba Bolden has had a SOLID season. He leads the team in tackles (38), has 3 Forced Fumbles, 1 INT, and 1 Sack. He has NOT been "average" as some posters have argued in other threads. Bubba is our best secondary player by a mile, the second best defensive player behind Roche (who actually has both more sacks and tackles than Phillips), and is an important leader. Even though Jaelan and Quincy get most of the props on the DL, both Ford and Slivera have played well so far this season.
Keep an eye out for GILBERT FRIERSON this game. He had a SOLID performance against UVA, and in my opinion is the best hybrid S-LB player on this roster. Depsite weighing a lean 205 lbs, he is THIRD on this team in Tackles (26) despite limited reps, has SIX tackles for loss out of those 26, 1 Fumble Recovery, and despite some miscues in pass coverage, has made some nice plays. I expect him to play a lot of reps against N.C. State's shotgun spread offense which uses a lot of flex and mark Zonovan Knight.
Special Teams - Borregales is 15th in Field Goals made per game (1.7) and 25th in FG Percentage (90.91%). Hedley has been equally dominant, ranking 3rd in Punting Average (46.8 Yards Per Punt). Ball security has been better with Restrepo, and hopefully he can shorten the field for our Offense tonight on the road.
N.C. State
Offense - Offense has been up and down. VT and UNC held N.C. State's Offense to 24 and 21 points, respectively. The Wolfpack are 45th in Scoring Offense (31.5 PPG), and rely more on the passing game, ranking 34th in Passing Offense (262.0 YPG) than they do the running game, ranking 81st in Rushing Offense (133.1 YPG). N.C. State, like UVA, has had QB issues. Hockman started the season at QB, and looked good in my film review of their game against Wake Forest. However, he had too many inconsistent performances, and was benched for Leary. Leary looked MUCH better at QB, but sustained a season ending surgery against Duke in the 3rd Quarter. Now Hockman starts again at QB- big break for us. I expect our Defense to have 1-2 Interceptions this game. N.C. State runs a lot of flex formations from the Shotgun Spread, some up-tempo, and emphasizes the shorter passing game. Zonovan Knight is a B/B+ level RB, so the LBs need to step up against him. He has over 500 yards of total offense to date, averaging about 6 yards per rushing attempt and 8 yards per reception.
Defense - Defense is below average. Gave up 42 to Wake Forest, 45 to Virginia Tech and 48 to UNC. The Wolfpack rank 80th in Scoring Defense (34.20 PPG), 34th in Defensive 3rd Down Conversion % (34.4%), and 46th in Red Zone Scoring Defense (81.1%). So, this game coming off a bye is a GREAT opportunity for our Offense to have solid success. NC State's Defense does have 6 INTs to date, and that ranks T-6th, so King needs to make good throwing decisions.
N.C. State's Defense is a 3-4, and based on what I've seen in their games, doesn't blitz a lot on either 1st or 2nd Down- they tend to blitz more on 3rd Down when it is an obvious passing situation. Not a lot of "wow" with N.C. State's front-7, and FOUR out of the front-7 are UNDERCLASSMEN, so I expect our Offense to be able to run well and get into favorabel down-and-distance situations. The ONE GUY to keep an eye on is Peyton Wilson- he leads the Wolfpack Defense with 53 Tackles, has great lateral speed sideline to sideline, and can cover the pass well in zone, already logging 3 INTs. As a whole, N.C. State's Defense can give up a TON of passing yardage playing zone defense, so King needs to step up.
Overall - We are a 10.5 point favorite, but I see this as a tough, tight game. Since Manny became HC, our teams have hardly looked dominant coming out of a bye. I do think that we will have success early on Offense scoring both a TD and FG in the 1st Quarter. 10-3 Miami End 1st Quarter. Second Quarter, I think that our Offense will stall a litte, and I feel there may be an INT by King or a fumble by a RB/WR. N.C. State level the game at 10-10 with a shorter field TD, and we add a FG right before Halftime. 13-10 Miami Halftime. Third Quarter, I think that we'll see some more slugglish play, with the teams exchanging FGs. 16-13 Miami End Third Quarter. 4th Quarter I have a feeling things will really start to light up on both sides. Think there will be a Defensive TD for us somewhere to make it 23-13 early in the 4th Quarter. N.C. State gets a FG, and somewhere middle 4th Quarter we get a homerun TD play to make it 30-16. I think that N.C. State gets a TD to make it a tough, tight game at 30-23, but we hang on to that score late.
Miami 30 - N.C. State 23
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