Premise - Using the win-loss record as the only tool to evaluate a head coach in his first five years at his first major D-1 school is a very myopic and limited way to evaluate how good of a coach he will be. The W-L record doesn't reflect the challenges the head coach has to deal with at the school or how well he has done in those situations. It doesn't account for the ability of the head coach to grow or develop into his profession. There are alot of things it doesnt account for, namely how good the coach will become. How do you evaluate the potential of a Head Coach? How do you know how good he is going to be? Seriously, give me some other ways besides W-L record to evaluate the potential of a head coach. Lets get some metrics going were we can then rate his performance. Then give a 1-10 rating for each metric and see how he compares to other coaches.
For those calling for Golden's head based off his head coaching record and saying he will never get better (e.g.Honey-IV) you are simply talking out of your ass. He might turn out to be a horrible head coach, mediocre head coach, or a championship caliber head coach. It is just to early to tell what he will become.
Lets do a limited case study based on the following examples:
You are the athletic director of a major D-1 football program. The fan base is calling for you to fire the head coach. You know what their W-L record is after five years but what do you do?
1. Fire the coach, give them an extension, or maintain the status quo?
2. Project how their career will go.
3. Finally based on each case study rank the head coaches in order in which you would hire them in order to establish your dynasty.
Case Study 1:
Record-----Conf Stand----Bowl
6–5–1-------5th ----------------Minor Bowl - loss
6–6----------5th ----------------Minor Bowl - loss
7–5----------6th-----------------Minor Bowl - loss
6–6----------6th-----------------No Bowl
9–2----------T-2nd------------- Mid-Major Bowl
34-24-1
Case Study 2:
Record-----Conf Stand----Bowl
7–4----------3rd--------------- No Bowl
3–7–1–-----5th----------------No Bowl
7–5----------T-3rd-------------Minor Bowl - loss
4–5–2-------3rd--------------- No Bowl
8–4----------4th----------------Minor Bowl - win
29-25-3
Case Study 3:
Record-----Conf Stand----Bowl
8–3----------T-1st--------------No Bowl
9–3---------T-1st--------------Minor Bowl - loss
5–6--------- T-5th--------------No Bowl
9–3----------T-2nd-------------Minor Bowl - win
9–4----------2nd----------------Minor Bowl - win
40-19
Case Study 4:
Record-----Conf Stand----Bowl
2–9----------Ind----------------No Bowl
3–8----------Ind----------------No Bowl
6–4–1-------Ind----------------No Bowl
6–5----------Ind----------------No Bowl
5–6----------Ind----------------No Bowl
22-32
Case Study 5:
Record-----Conf Stand----Bowl
12–0---------1st----------------National Champion
12–1---------1st----------------Loss in National Championship
11–2---------1st----------------Major Bowl - win
9–3----------T-3rd--------------Mid-Major Bowl - win
9–3----------2nd----------------Mid-Major Bowl - loss
53-9
Case Study 6:
Record-----Conf Stand----Bowl
6–6---------T-4th----------------No Bowl
7–5---------T-1st----------------No Bowl
9–4---------T-2nd---------------Minor Bowl - loss
6–7---------T-5th----------------Minor Bowl - loss
28-22
My point isn't to say Golden will be a good head coach or a bad head coach. My point is to say their is a mob mentality on this board and not enough critical thinking. If you cant say what,where, why, or how Golden is specifically failing at then you cant properly evaluate how well he is doing. And if you identify one thing he is failing at, dont stop there and say that it is the sole reason of failure. Continue and list all the things he is failing or succeeding at. Then evaluate if the things he is failing at are fixable (e.g. recruiting) or not fixable (e.g. egregious NCAA violations). I think then you will get a better perspective to see how good Golden or any coach can become. Answers: 1 - Nick Saban, Michigan State 2 - Jimmy Johnson, Oklahoma State 3 - Butch Davis, Miami 4 - Frank Beamer, Virginia Tech 5 - Larry Coker, Miami 6 - Al Golden Miami
For those calling for Golden's head based off his head coaching record and saying he will never get better (e.g.Honey-IV) you are simply talking out of your ass. He might turn out to be a horrible head coach, mediocre head coach, or a championship caliber head coach. It is just to early to tell what he will become.
Lets do a limited case study based on the following examples:
You are the athletic director of a major D-1 football program. The fan base is calling for you to fire the head coach. You know what their W-L record is after five years but what do you do?
1. Fire the coach, give them an extension, or maintain the status quo?
2. Project how their career will go.
3. Finally based on each case study rank the head coaches in order in which you would hire them in order to establish your dynasty.
Case Study 1:
Record-----Conf Stand----Bowl
6–5–1-------5th ----------------Minor Bowl - loss
6–6----------5th ----------------Minor Bowl - loss
7–5----------6th-----------------Minor Bowl - loss
6–6----------6th-----------------No Bowl
9–2----------T-2nd------------- Mid-Major Bowl
34-24-1
Case Study 2:
Record-----Conf Stand----Bowl
7–4----------3rd--------------- No Bowl
3–7–1–-----5th----------------No Bowl
7–5----------T-3rd-------------Minor Bowl - loss
4–5–2-------3rd--------------- No Bowl
8–4----------4th----------------Minor Bowl - win
29-25-3
Case Study 3:
Record-----Conf Stand----Bowl
8–3----------T-1st--------------No Bowl
9–3---------T-1st--------------Minor Bowl - loss
5–6--------- T-5th--------------No Bowl
9–3----------T-2nd-------------Minor Bowl - win
9–4----------2nd----------------Minor Bowl - win
40-19
Case Study 4:
Record-----Conf Stand----Bowl
2–9----------Ind----------------No Bowl
3–8----------Ind----------------No Bowl
6–4–1-------Ind----------------No Bowl
6–5----------Ind----------------No Bowl
5–6----------Ind----------------No Bowl
22-32
Case Study 5:
Record-----Conf Stand----Bowl
12–0---------1st----------------National Champion
12–1---------1st----------------Loss in National Championship
11–2---------1st----------------Major Bowl - win
9–3----------T-3rd--------------Mid-Major Bowl - win
9–3----------2nd----------------Mid-Major Bowl - loss
53-9
Case Study 6:
Record-----Conf Stand----Bowl
6–6---------T-4th----------------No Bowl
7–5---------T-1st----------------No Bowl
9–4---------T-2nd---------------Minor Bowl - loss
6–7---------T-5th----------------Minor Bowl - loss
28-22
My point isn't to say Golden will be a good head coach or a bad head coach. My point is to say their is a mob mentality on this board and not enough critical thinking. If you cant say what,where, why, or how Golden is specifically failing at then you cant properly evaluate how well he is doing. And if you identify one thing he is failing at, dont stop there and say that it is the sole reason of failure. Continue and list all the things he is failing or succeeding at. Then evaluate if the things he is failing at are fixable (e.g. recruiting) or not fixable (e.g. egregious NCAA violations). I think then you will get a better perspective to see how good Golden or any coach can become. Answers: 1 - Nick Saban, Michigan State 2 - Jimmy Johnson, Oklahoma State 3 - Butch Davis, Miami 4 - Frank Beamer, Virginia Tech 5 - Larry Coker, Miami 6 - Al Golden Miami
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