By this, I mean "butts in seats attendance" not the "paid" attendance figures that are published and announced.
What would you guys guess was the highest true attendance we have ever enjoyed over an entire season? What about over a 3 to 5 year period?
I'd be willing to bet it is not much higher than 45k, at least not over any 3 to 5 year period.
If you agree with that then, a 40k stadium is exactly what this program needs.
From an economic standpoint, it doesn't make sense to have a stadium with a capacity greater than your average true attendance. In fact, your stadium capacity should likely be slightly less than that average. Why? Because you should adjust the average for "outliers", which for us would be the home games against FSU, UF or other marquee opponents.
Consider this scenario. Assume we have 7 home games per year and 2 of those games are against marquee opponents. Let's also assume our average true attendance for the year was 45k and the attendance for marquee opponent #1 was 70k and marquee opponent #2 was 60k.
Under this scenario, guess what our average attendance was for the other 5 home games? 37k
This scenario is precisely the situation the University of Miami faces. Not just today, but generally throughout its entire tenure as a major national football program.
Does it makes sense to play in a 65k stadium where nearly 30k seats are empty for 70% of your home games? The answer is unequivocally NO...on all fronts. Visually, this looks terrible for the program and invites an enormous amount of negative recruiting. Not just from opposing coaches but from the national media. More importantly, this drives down the price of tickets. Lower ticket prices lead to lower revenues, which means less money for better coaching staffs, better football operations, and better facilities.
As much as you might hate the idea, a 40k stadium is probably a very accurate reflection of our true attendance over time, including our glory years.
I'm not necessarily sold on the location that is being discussed, but the size seems right. Ideally, the design would allow for temporary expansion for games against marquee opponents and permanent expansion if our average attendance improves.
What would you guys guess was the highest true attendance we have ever enjoyed over an entire season? What about over a 3 to 5 year period?
I'd be willing to bet it is not much higher than 45k, at least not over any 3 to 5 year period.
If you agree with that then, a 40k stadium is exactly what this program needs.
From an economic standpoint, it doesn't make sense to have a stadium with a capacity greater than your average true attendance. In fact, your stadium capacity should likely be slightly less than that average. Why? Because you should adjust the average for "outliers", which for us would be the home games against FSU, UF or other marquee opponents.
Consider this scenario. Assume we have 7 home games per year and 2 of those games are against marquee opponents. Let's also assume our average true attendance for the year was 45k and the attendance for marquee opponent #1 was 70k and marquee opponent #2 was 60k.
Under this scenario, guess what our average attendance was for the other 5 home games? 37k
This scenario is precisely the situation the University of Miami faces. Not just today, but generally throughout its entire tenure as a major national football program.
Does it makes sense to play in a 65k stadium where nearly 30k seats are empty for 70% of your home games? The answer is unequivocally NO...on all fronts. Visually, this looks terrible for the program and invites an enormous amount of negative recruiting. Not just from opposing coaches but from the national media. More importantly, this drives down the price of tickets. Lower ticket prices lead to lower revenues, which means less money for better coaching staffs, better football operations, and better facilities.
As much as you might hate the idea, a 40k stadium is probably a very accurate reflection of our true attendance over time, including our glory years.
I'm not necessarily sold on the location that is being discussed, but the size seems right. Ideally, the design would allow for temporary expansion for games against marquee opponents and permanent expansion if our average attendance improves.
