In light of the recent news rather than mass panic we should actually be doing back flips and cheering about how well we have progressed with this epidemic. If you look at the statistics of recent weeks there is a ton of great news out there. The WHO says that the average lapse of diagnosis to a persons death is 18 days so lets have a look at the data
May 2-7 is the first week that lockdown orders were lifted in Florida and that week we had a total of 334 Covid deaths reported. 18 days prior on April 14-20th there were just shy of 5700 cases reported which means that the correlated deaths for this period is approximately .6% of diagnosed cased resulting in deaths.
Fast forward to this last weeks death toll for July 1-6 and you will find a total of 330 deaths (an improvement) against a total of 15,700 diagnosed cases for the week of June 13-19th. Do the math and you will find that the fatality rate is a mere .2% or in other words about the same as the flu.
Now you say what about the fact that in the last week there have been 60,200 cases diagnosed. Again do the math and at .2% fatality rate we will find that in about 10 days the seven day average may jump to about 500-1500 and will likely decline steadily thereafter. The reason for the range is that a great deal of the diagnoses have been people under the age of 50 and therefore extremely unlikely to die from the disease which could bring the overall fatality rate to below .1%. If the fatality rate just holds then we will see 1 or 2 bad weeks of 1000+ deaths and then rapid decline correlating with lower case rates.
In all these numbers are great news as it shows that the disease with are new understandings of treatment (i.e. dexamethasone, hydroxychloroquine, lying patients prone, etc.) has lowered the deadliness of this disease to about the same as a bad flu season. The world was caught off guard and has improved its understanding of this disease and how to handle it and hopefully politicians will follow and get things moving again, starting with students in school in August and most importantly MIAMI HURRICANE FOOTBALL ON SEPTEMBER 5TH!
May 2-7 is the first week that lockdown orders were lifted in Florida and that week we had a total of 334 Covid deaths reported. 18 days prior on April 14-20th there were just shy of 5700 cases reported which means that the correlated deaths for this period is approximately .6% of diagnosed cased resulting in deaths.
Fast forward to this last weeks death toll for July 1-6 and you will find a total of 330 deaths (an improvement) against a total of 15,700 diagnosed cases for the week of June 13-19th. Do the math and you will find that the fatality rate is a mere .2% or in other words about the same as the flu.
Now you say what about the fact that in the last week there have been 60,200 cases diagnosed. Again do the math and at .2% fatality rate we will find that in about 10 days the seven day average may jump to about 500-1500 and will likely decline steadily thereafter. The reason for the range is that a great deal of the diagnoses have been people under the age of 50 and therefore extremely unlikely to die from the disease which could bring the overall fatality rate to below .1%. If the fatality rate just holds then we will see 1 or 2 bad weeks of 1000+ deaths and then rapid decline correlating with lower case rates.
In all these numbers are great news as it shows that the disease with are new understandings of treatment (i.e. dexamethasone, hydroxychloroquine, lying patients prone, etc.) has lowered the deadliness of this disease to about the same as a bad flu season. The world was caught off guard and has improved its understanding of this disease and how to handle it and hopefully politicians will follow and get things moving again, starting with students in school in August and most importantly MIAMI HURRICANE FOOTBALL ON SEPTEMBER 5TH!