Something that has been kind of lost over the course of the season is that there is an inevitable shift that will take place in College Football in another 2 years once Texas and Oklahoma merge into the SEC.
The Big 12 will not be able to survive without them.
The ACC, Big 10 and PAC12 will have to step things up in order to compete with TV revenue and general relevancy.
The way I see it... there will be 4 Super-Conferences that form. How that shapes up remains to be seen... but here are my thoughts:
1. The ACC and Big10 Merge
a). Power Programs - Ohio State, Michigan, Wisconsin, Penn State, Clemson, FSU, Miami
b.) Tier 2 Programs - Nebraska, Iowa, Michigan State, VT, North Carolina, Pitt
c.) Potential Power Team to be added - Notre Dame
d.) Potential Tier 2 Team to be Added - West Virginia
This move may be necessary for either conference to remain relevant and makes the most sense to me in regard to geographies as well as competition. The ACC and Big10 have a few cross-conference rivalries that will be good to rekindle in a meaningful way. Plus, the travel is easier and makes sense. Notre Dame will be forced to join or be left out, as even their TV contract and ability to schedule quality opponents will be diminished. And make no mistake... they will join now as they are headed into uncharted waters after Kelley moved on from his job. They cannot afford to slip into mediocre on-field results AND not have a conference to help them as a backstop. Add West Virginia back from the Big 12 and a few other quality teams (as necessary to round out the numbers) and we have a very competitive league top-to-bottom with some very intriguing rivalry games and powerhouse programs that will make for awesome matchups, TV revenue and bowl matchups/playoff appearances.
2. The SEC adds more, if they want to
I don't really need to go in-depth here to discuss the tiers of SEC teams... its pretty well known by now. SEC adding Oklahoma and Texas into the fold along with TAMU, UF, LSU, Bama, Georgia make for a scary upper tier. Then you look at the teams which would be considered "Tier 2" and that list is scary good too with teams like Ole Miss, Auburn, Tennessee, Kentucky, Mizzou, USC(e), etc. They will command a gigantic TV deal and will be tough to play cross conference. The SEC has positioned themselves well over the past 10 years and they have all the momentum considering the crazy success the league had had. Kudos to them. They'll cherry pick a few more lower tiered teams to round out the conference, not necessarily for competitive advantage but more so for TV viewership. A program like Houston or Memphis would make sense but they may not even need them. Top to bottom they cover the region almost exclusively when it comes to relevant programs which is probably enough.
3. The Big 12 and Pac 12 Merge
Similar to the ACC/Big10 merger... this will be done out of necessity. These 2 conferences have probably the least amount of Powerhouse teams once Oklahoma and Texas head over to the SEC but the PAC12 is ready for a relevancy resurgence with Riley going to USC. Oregon has things in place now (thanks to Mario) and if they can keep things rolling they can be a successful team for years to come and Utah is firing on all cylinders for the time being. UCLA and Stanford are quality teams that have the ability to be top tiered but just arent there consistently. The big 12 is in REAL trouble when their powerhouse teams head East for the SEC. As I see it, Oklahoma State and Texas Tech would be the top tiered programs remaining. The mid-tiered programs remaining are ok, and I see West Virginia headed back to the Big10/ACC league, so they are going to need to try and add some programs that will help make them more relevant... a UNLV, Hawai'i, Utah State, etc. to help boost the league will be necessary to gain more viewership so they can compete for a TV contract.
4. The Group of 5 (or 500)
The remaining teams in the remaining conferences will band together to form 2 or 3 super conferences of their own. Its possible they may not need to do such a thing, but it makes sense from a team count in each league and could possibly help the G5 or whatever they become have a strong showing during bowl/playoff season. Cincinnati showed everyone this year that there are good teams in the G5 conferences that can make a splash in any given year and play tough with other P5 programs. That said... they just arent going to be able to match what the other super conference will be doing. Their expansion will be to try and generate better TV revenue deals, like everyone else.
5. Playoffs Expand to 10 Teams
This too will be necessary once the conferences merge and the lay of the landscape settles in. There will be too many quality teams to keep out.
a.) Conference winners from the 4 Super Conferences will be seeded 1-4
b.) Runner-up from the conference championships will be seeded according to W/L record and S.O.S.
c.) 2 "At-Large" teams will be selected as well and seeded based on W/L records and S.O.S. to round it out.
Top 4 teams get a bye in Round 1.
Round 1: 5 v 10, 6 v 9, 7 v 8,
Round 2: Winner of Round 1 play Top 4 based on seed seat. (1 v 8, 2 v 7, 3 v 6, 4 v 5)
Round 3: Top 4 remaining play (1 v 4, 2 v 3)
Round 4: National Championship Game
Yes... this adds ALOT more games to the schedule and runs the season long. but the playoff rounds can be added into the Bowl Season so that the bowls and schools don't lose out on revenue generation opportunities. The schools that make the playoffs will need to show their heart and desire and will in order to come out as Champions because it's going to take alot of hard work and sacrifice to win it all within this scenario. Players "opting out" of bowl games will still happen when they are labeled as "meaningless" but players on teams inside the playoffs will be playing to win it all. Injuries can happen and will happen, which is a part of life and part of their chosen profession.
Just my honest opinion about the way I see this whole thing playing out. Would love to hear thoughts on this.
The Big 12 will not be able to survive without them.
The ACC, Big 10 and PAC12 will have to step things up in order to compete with TV revenue and general relevancy.
The way I see it... there will be 4 Super-Conferences that form. How that shapes up remains to be seen... but here are my thoughts:
1. The ACC and Big10 Merge
a). Power Programs - Ohio State, Michigan, Wisconsin, Penn State, Clemson, FSU, Miami
b.) Tier 2 Programs - Nebraska, Iowa, Michigan State, VT, North Carolina, Pitt
c.) Potential Power Team to be added - Notre Dame
d.) Potential Tier 2 Team to be Added - West Virginia
This move may be necessary for either conference to remain relevant and makes the most sense to me in regard to geographies as well as competition. The ACC and Big10 have a few cross-conference rivalries that will be good to rekindle in a meaningful way. Plus, the travel is easier and makes sense. Notre Dame will be forced to join or be left out, as even their TV contract and ability to schedule quality opponents will be diminished. And make no mistake... they will join now as they are headed into uncharted waters after Kelley moved on from his job. They cannot afford to slip into mediocre on-field results AND not have a conference to help them as a backstop. Add West Virginia back from the Big 12 and a few other quality teams (as necessary to round out the numbers) and we have a very competitive league top-to-bottom with some very intriguing rivalry games and powerhouse programs that will make for awesome matchups, TV revenue and bowl matchups/playoff appearances.
2. The SEC adds more, if they want to
I don't really need to go in-depth here to discuss the tiers of SEC teams... its pretty well known by now. SEC adding Oklahoma and Texas into the fold along with TAMU, UF, LSU, Bama, Georgia make for a scary upper tier. Then you look at the teams which would be considered "Tier 2" and that list is scary good too with teams like Ole Miss, Auburn, Tennessee, Kentucky, Mizzou, USC(e), etc. They will command a gigantic TV deal and will be tough to play cross conference. The SEC has positioned themselves well over the past 10 years and they have all the momentum considering the crazy success the league had had. Kudos to them. They'll cherry pick a few more lower tiered teams to round out the conference, not necessarily for competitive advantage but more so for TV viewership. A program like Houston or Memphis would make sense but they may not even need them. Top to bottom they cover the region almost exclusively when it comes to relevant programs which is probably enough.
3. The Big 12 and Pac 12 Merge
Similar to the ACC/Big10 merger... this will be done out of necessity. These 2 conferences have probably the least amount of Powerhouse teams once Oklahoma and Texas head over to the SEC but the PAC12 is ready for a relevancy resurgence with Riley going to USC. Oregon has things in place now (thanks to Mario) and if they can keep things rolling they can be a successful team for years to come and Utah is firing on all cylinders for the time being. UCLA and Stanford are quality teams that have the ability to be top tiered but just arent there consistently. The big 12 is in REAL trouble when their powerhouse teams head East for the SEC. As I see it, Oklahoma State and Texas Tech would be the top tiered programs remaining. The mid-tiered programs remaining are ok, and I see West Virginia headed back to the Big10/ACC league, so they are going to need to try and add some programs that will help make them more relevant... a UNLV, Hawai'i, Utah State, etc. to help boost the league will be necessary to gain more viewership so they can compete for a TV contract.
4. The Group of 5 (or 500)
The remaining teams in the remaining conferences will band together to form 2 or 3 super conferences of their own. Its possible they may not need to do such a thing, but it makes sense from a team count in each league and could possibly help the G5 or whatever they become have a strong showing during bowl/playoff season. Cincinnati showed everyone this year that there are good teams in the G5 conferences that can make a splash in any given year and play tough with other P5 programs. That said... they just arent going to be able to match what the other super conference will be doing. Their expansion will be to try and generate better TV revenue deals, like everyone else.
5. Playoffs Expand to 10 Teams
This too will be necessary once the conferences merge and the lay of the landscape settles in. There will be too many quality teams to keep out.
a.) Conference winners from the 4 Super Conferences will be seeded 1-4
b.) Runner-up from the conference championships will be seeded according to W/L record and S.O.S.
c.) 2 "At-Large" teams will be selected as well and seeded based on W/L records and S.O.S. to round it out.
Top 4 teams get a bye in Round 1.
Round 1: 5 v 10, 6 v 9, 7 v 8,
Round 2: Winner of Round 1 play Top 4 based on seed seat. (1 v 8, 2 v 7, 3 v 6, 4 v 5)
Round 3: Top 4 remaining play (1 v 4, 2 v 3)
Round 4: National Championship Game
Yes... this adds ALOT more games to the schedule and runs the season long. but the playoff rounds can be added into the Bowl Season so that the bowls and schools don't lose out on revenue generation opportunities. The schools that make the playoffs will need to show their heart and desire and will in order to come out as Champions because it's going to take alot of hard work and sacrifice to win it all within this scenario. Players "opting out" of bowl games will still happen when they are labeled as "meaningless" but players on teams inside the playoffs will be playing to win it all. Injuries can happen and will happen, which is a part of life and part of their chosen profession.
Just my honest opinion about the way I see this whole thing playing out. Would love to hear thoughts on this.
