I admit that I didn't think that we would win two consecutive road game against a tough B- Pitt team and a desparate rival in FSU. Indeed, at 3-4 coming of an inexcusable loss to GT, I was as vocal as anyone for a full nuclear reboot of the football program. I steadfastly still believe that we cannot be elite as long as both Lego Boy Blake and Danmark Penosofrio are in the Hecht Center; however, wins certainly quiet critics....... at least in the short term.
FSU was not a "turning point". A turning point of momentum to launch this program back to being great will require WINNING OUT, PLUS a bowl win over a B/B+ level program (I am presuming that we do not play in the ACC CG). We saw this with Richt in 2016 reeling off 4 in a row and then beating a solid #17 or so WVU to finish 9-4. That did a lot for both recruiting and momentum into 2017 where we went on that 10-0 run with signature wins over FSU, VT, and ND.
Tough task, and we have been brutally inconsistent all season. So that starts now with Louisville. This is a solid 5-3 Louisville team under Satterfield, who had multiple 10-win seasons at App. State. Louisville averages a full touchdown more than we do per game in scoring (32.8 PPG - 48th vs. 26.8 PPG - 80th). When you think of Louisville you think of Lamar Jackson and Petrino and great passing Louisville teams of years past. But this Louisville offense is a dynamic spread RUSHING attack with a lot of RPO, averaging almost 220 rushing yards per game- good for 23rd.
I've seen 3 Louisville games this year- they are a totally different offense with Cunningham now since Pass has been injured. Louisville hung 62 on the No. 2 team in the ACC - #19 Wake Forest, and beat a tough UVA team. They also lost to that same FSU team we beat, and were blown out by both ND and Clemson. So they are certainly beatable, and I favor us to win. It all starts with our DEFENSE, and being able to both set the edge, and jam the middle. Our supposed "elite" LB core must blow up run plays, tackle in 1-on-1 situations, and force a fumble. Louisville does not have great defensive personnel, and I think both DeeJay and Cam can each have over 100 rushing yards. Jarren, protect the ball- I don't think we need as many big plays in the passing game because I think we can get big plays in the running game. No doubt though that we still need to continue taking shots deep downfield to keep Louisville honest.
My initial thought was a shootout in the mid to high 30's. We've scored more than 30 points against a Power-5 School ONLY ONCE this year- VT, after Kosi came in and had to chuck it all game. If you saw my FSU offensive game film thread, then you saw how eggregiously inefficient our offense was against FSU despite having HALF (7 of 14) of our offensive drives start at either midfield or FSU territory. We dominated TOP, field position, and most stats, and STILL only scored 27. Kicking issues remain a problem for us.
We score a touchdown first, then struggle on offense for a while. Louisville gets a FG before the 1st Quarter ends, and we lead 7-3 after the 1st Quarter. I think Louisvilel gets a homerun touchdown run and takes a 10-7 lead in the 2nd Quarter. Jarren throws an INT, but our Defense gets a turnover and Rice hits a short FG before Halftime, and the game is tied 10-10 at Halftime. 3rd Quarter is sluggish, but Jarren engineers a good offensive drive at some point and DeeJay gets a touchdown. We take a 17-10 lead after the 3rd Quarter. I think that we add another touchdown in the 4th Quarter to open up the game, and although Louisville comes back with a touchdown, we kick a late FG and edge by 27-17.
Miami 27 - Louisville 17
FSU was not a "turning point". A turning point of momentum to launch this program back to being great will require WINNING OUT, PLUS a bowl win over a B/B+ level program (I am presuming that we do not play in the ACC CG). We saw this with Richt in 2016 reeling off 4 in a row and then beating a solid #17 or so WVU to finish 9-4. That did a lot for both recruiting and momentum into 2017 where we went on that 10-0 run with signature wins over FSU, VT, and ND.
Tough task, and we have been brutally inconsistent all season. So that starts now with Louisville. This is a solid 5-3 Louisville team under Satterfield, who had multiple 10-win seasons at App. State. Louisville averages a full touchdown more than we do per game in scoring (32.8 PPG - 48th vs. 26.8 PPG - 80th). When you think of Louisville you think of Lamar Jackson and Petrino and great passing Louisville teams of years past. But this Louisville offense is a dynamic spread RUSHING attack with a lot of RPO, averaging almost 220 rushing yards per game- good for 23rd.
I've seen 3 Louisville games this year- they are a totally different offense with Cunningham now since Pass has been injured. Louisville hung 62 on the No. 2 team in the ACC - #19 Wake Forest, and beat a tough UVA team. They also lost to that same FSU team we beat, and were blown out by both ND and Clemson. So they are certainly beatable, and I favor us to win. It all starts with our DEFENSE, and being able to both set the edge, and jam the middle. Our supposed "elite" LB core must blow up run plays, tackle in 1-on-1 situations, and force a fumble. Louisville does not have great defensive personnel, and I think both DeeJay and Cam can each have over 100 rushing yards. Jarren, protect the ball- I don't think we need as many big plays in the passing game because I think we can get big plays in the running game. No doubt though that we still need to continue taking shots deep downfield to keep Louisville honest.
My initial thought was a shootout in the mid to high 30's. We've scored more than 30 points against a Power-5 School ONLY ONCE this year- VT, after Kosi came in and had to chuck it all game. If you saw my FSU offensive game film thread, then you saw how eggregiously inefficient our offense was against FSU despite having HALF (7 of 14) of our offensive drives start at either midfield or FSU territory. We dominated TOP, field position, and most stats, and STILL only scored 27. Kicking issues remain a problem for us.
We score a touchdown first, then struggle on offense for a while. Louisville gets a FG before the 1st Quarter ends, and we lead 7-3 after the 1st Quarter. I think Louisvilel gets a homerun touchdown run and takes a 10-7 lead in the 2nd Quarter. Jarren throws an INT, but our Defense gets a turnover and Rice hits a short FG before Halftime, and the game is tied 10-10 at Halftime. 3rd Quarter is sluggish, but Jarren engineers a good offensive drive at some point and DeeJay gets a touchdown. We take a 17-10 lead after the 3rd Quarter. I think that we add another touchdown in the 4th Quarter to open up the game, and although Louisville comes back with a touchdown, we kick a late FG and edge by 27-17.
Miami 27 - Louisville 17
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