The math shows why it is the right move if you can make close to 40% of your 2 pointers and historic success is higher than that. For simplicity assume 40% chance of making 2 pointer and 100% chance of making 1 pointer (assume less strengthens argument for going for 2 but makes math way harder).
Let’s also assume the only remaining outcome is trailing team scores 2 TDs and leading team doesn’t score as no other scenarios are impacted.
Three scenarios can occur - 1) make first 2 pointer, just do XP on second (this will happen 40% of the time and team wins). 2) miss both 2 pointers (will happen 36% of the time and you lose). 3). Miss first make second (happens 24% of the time and your tied).
Teams make 2 pointers more than 40% of the time which makes odds even better. Teams also miss a small % of XPs (not so small in our case), and that also makes move smarter.
Manny may be sucking at everything else, but he was correct on this call and it almost saved us the game.
That’s it.
Let’s also assume the only remaining outcome is trailing team scores 2 TDs and leading team doesn’t score as no other scenarios are impacted.
Three scenarios can occur - 1) make first 2 pointer, just do XP on second (this will happen 40% of the time and team wins). 2) miss both 2 pointers (will happen 36% of the time and you lose). 3). Miss first make second (happens 24% of the time and your tied).
Teams make 2 pointers more than 40% of the time which makes odds even better. Teams also miss a small % of XPs (not so small in our case), and that also makes move smarter.
Manny may be sucking at everything else, but he was correct on this call and it almost saved us the game.
That’s it.
