Caniacs:
As we head into this weekend series with NY Tech, I have a question for U?
We know we'll get a regional for the 43rd(?) year in a row, but...
Do our Canes still have a shot at being selected for a Super Regional? To that Miami must finish post-ACC tourney as one of the top 8 tanked teams. Is that still possible?
A lot has been made at our four series losses this year and three have come on the road and three have come against ranked teams.
All of them have this one stat in common: In each series, at least one of our two losses came by only one run. In the UF series, we lost two games by one run. I don't know if the NCAA selection committee takes this into account because the formula seems pretty simple to me:
Finish in the top 8 and you host all the way to Omaha.
Check this out (the following is a repeat from my post-game post after our Sunday win vs. FSU):
At then #6 Florida in February (now ranked at least No. 10)
Game 1: Lose 4-3 as the Gates score winning run in the bottom of the 9th
Game 2: Canes win 7-2
Game 3: Gates take series with a 2-1 win 1 run loss on the road
At then unranked Virginia in April (now at least No. 24, UVA was top-5 pre-season pick but injuries derailed their season)
Game 1: lose 5-4 (had runners on 2nd & 3rd in the 9th with 2 outs but could not bring them home)
Game 2: Lose 5-2 (Cavs score 4x in bottom 8th off B. Garcia to win)
Game 3: Win 8-6
At then #17 Louisville in March (now ranked at least No. 2)
Game 1: Cards win 9-6 We're up 6-3 when UL scores a 6-spot in the bottom of the 7th to win
Game 2: Canes win 9-5
Game 3: Lose 5-4 1-run road loss as Cards score winning run in the 9th
At home to #12 FSU in April (now ranked No. 8)
Game 1: Lose 8-7 in 17 innings (late game hit would have scored lead run ruled a ground rule DBL. Runner did not score
Game 2: Lose 15-5 1st inning: Bases loaded, no outs & 4-5-6 hitters up and all 3 strike out
Game 3: Pound them back 12-0. We outscore the Noles 24-23
Yes, we lost each series and the UVA trip was a head scratcher and the most damaging, but the stats above show just how close we came to winning each. And what if we had? For one thing, this thread wouldn't exist today.
Meanwhile, Miami finishes the year at home with 8 straight games starting with the BCC win earlier this week (and note this: since the 12-0 win over FSU, the Canes have scored at least 9 runs in each game since (Pitt series and BCC).
First, we tee it up against Division 1 Independent NY Tech this weekend, a re-scheduled mid-week game against ranked FAU and then we close with the always dangerous Georgia Tech, even if they are having a down year.
The game against No. 15 FAU will be HUGE because a win could really help us in the RPI
Speaking of RPI, here's the latest Top 10:
1. Dallas Baptist (I don't know who their coach is, but this program has come out of nowhere)
2. Texas A&M
3. Miami
4. UCLA
5. LSU
6. FSU
7. TCU
8. FAU
9. Florida
10. Missouri St.
Also, these teams are important to Canes fans:
12: Louisville
17. UNC
19. Georgia Tech
33. Virginia
Bottom line: to have any shot at landing in the top 8, I think the following has to happen:
1.) We can't lose ANY games. We have no room for, ahem, error. A loss to NY Tech and we're toast
2.) Some teams in front of us have to lose so we can move up
3.) We have to win the ACC tourney, I think, and that means if possible, getting rematches with Louisville and FSU
Beating UL and FSU in the tournament would help offset our series' losses and would even the overall matches at 2-2.
Something else to consider:
While we are playing NY Tech, No. 8 FSU is at No. 2 Louisville this weekend in a HUGE ACC series. Frankly, we need UL to win at least 2 if not sweep in hopes of dropping FSU below us so something's got to give here in the rankings.
No. 10 Florida lost to No. 9 Vandy Thursday night in Nashville in the opener of their 3-game series. Something's got to give there too.
No. 3 UCLA is at No. 11 Arizona State. We need the Bruins to win at least 2 games
Unranked WVU is at No. 12 Okie State. need the 'eers to do same as above
No. 15 FAU hosts Rice. If we beat FAU we need them to keep wining to gig our RPI
When we host GT next weekend, here's what's happening in the ACC regarding games that could impact the Canes in the rankings:
Clemson at FSU
Louisville at NCST
Virginia at UNC
In the SEC:
Auburn at Florida
LSU at South Carolina (Gamecocks are way down this year)
Texas A&M at Ole Miss
Vandy at Alabama
FAU at Western KY
That's my take, Caniacs. What do U think? Let the discussion begin as we await the first pitch of tonight's opening game against NY Tech.
Go Canes!
As we head into this weekend series with NY Tech, I have a question for U?
We know we'll get a regional for the 43rd(?) year in a row, but...
Do our Canes still have a shot at being selected for a Super Regional? To that Miami must finish post-ACC tourney as one of the top 8 tanked teams. Is that still possible?
A lot has been made at our four series losses this year and three have come on the road and three have come against ranked teams.
All of them have this one stat in common: In each series, at least one of our two losses came by only one run. In the UF series, we lost two games by one run. I don't know if the NCAA selection committee takes this into account because the formula seems pretty simple to me:
Finish in the top 8 and you host all the way to Omaha.
Check this out (the following is a repeat from my post-game post after our Sunday win vs. FSU):
At then #6 Florida in February (now ranked at least No. 10)
Game 1: Lose 4-3 as the Gates score winning run in the bottom of the 9th
Game 2: Canes win 7-2
Game 3: Gates take series with a 2-1 win 1 run loss on the road
At then unranked Virginia in April (now at least No. 24, UVA was top-5 pre-season pick but injuries derailed their season)
Game 1: lose 5-4 (had runners on 2nd & 3rd in the 9th with 2 outs but could not bring them home)
Game 2: Lose 5-2 (Cavs score 4x in bottom 8th off B. Garcia to win)
Game 3: Win 8-6
At then #17 Louisville in March (now ranked at least No. 2)
Game 1: Cards win 9-6 We're up 6-3 when UL scores a 6-spot in the bottom of the 7th to win
Game 2: Canes win 9-5
Game 3: Lose 5-4 1-run road loss as Cards score winning run in the 9th
At home to #12 FSU in April (now ranked No. 8)
Game 1: Lose 8-7 in 17 innings (late game hit would have scored lead run ruled a ground rule DBL. Runner did not score
Game 2: Lose 15-5 1st inning: Bases loaded, no outs & 4-5-6 hitters up and all 3 strike out
Game 3: Pound them back 12-0. We outscore the Noles 24-23
Yes, we lost each series and the UVA trip was a head scratcher and the most damaging, but the stats above show just how close we came to winning each. And what if we had? For one thing, this thread wouldn't exist today.
Meanwhile, Miami finishes the year at home with 8 straight games starting with the BCC win earlier this week (and note this: since the 12-0 win over FSU, the Canes have scored at least 9 runs in each game since (Pitt series and BCC).
First, we tee it up against Division 1 Independent NY Tech this weekend, a re-scheduled mid-week game against ranked FAU and then we close with the always dangerous Georgia Tech, even if they are having a down year.
The game against No. 15 FAU will be HUGE because a win could really help us in the RPI
Speaking of RPI, here's the latest Top 10:
1. Dallas Baptist (I don't know who their coach is, but this program has come out of nowhere)
2. Texas A&M
3. Miami
4. UCLA
5. LSU
6. FSU
7. TCU
8. FAU
9. Florida
10. Missouri St.
Also, these teams are important to Canes fans:
12: Louisville
17. UNC
19. Georgia Tech
33. Virginia
Bottom line: to have any shot at landing in the top 8, I think the following has to happen:
1.) We can't lose ANY games. We have no room for, ahem, error. A loss to NY Tech and we're toast
2.) Some teams in front of us have to lose so we can move up
3.) We have to win the ACC tourney, I think, and that means if possible, getting rematches with Louisville and FSU
Beating UL and FSU in the tournament would help offset our series' losses and would even the overall matches at 2-2.
Something else to consider:
While we are playing NY Tech, No. 8 FSU is at No. 2 Louisville this weekend in a HUGE ACC series. Frankly, we need UL to win at least 2 if not sweep in hopes of dropping FSU below us so something's got to give here in the rankings.
No. 10 Florida lost to No. 9 Vandy Thursday night in Nashville in the opener of their 3-game series. Something's got to give there too.
No. 3 UCLA is at No. 11 Arizona State. We need the Bruins to win at least 2 games
Unranked WVU is at No. 12 Okie State. need the 'eers to do same as above
No. 15 FAU hosts Rice. If we beat FAU we need them to keep wining to gig our RPI
When we host GT next weekend, here's what's happening in the ACC regarding games that could impact the Canes in the rankings:
Clemson at FSU
Louisville at NCST
Virginia at UNC
In the SEC:
Auburn at Florida
LSU at South Carolina (Gamecocks are way down this year)
Texas A&M at Ole Miss
Vandy at Alabama
FAU at Western KY
That's my take, Caniacs. What do U think? Let the discussion begin as we await the first pitch of tonight's opening game against NY Tech.
Go Canes!
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