We've seen all sorts of statistics showing how recruiting rankings correlate to the NFL draft. We've also seen various statistics showing how highly rated the recruiting classes of recent national champions have been. But, does this tell the whole story? I don't think so, and here is why.
I've pulled Rivals data on the final recruiting rankings for every ACC team going back to 2005. I've then ranked each team, each year, by taking the average class rankings from the 5 most recent recruiting classes. For example, Miami's 2015 average class ranking of 21 uses the class rankings for 2011 (36), 2012 (9), 2013 (20), 2014 (12), and 2015 (26). Because I'm using an average of the 5 most recent class rankings to develop each year's team rankings, I was only able to develop team rankings going back to 2009. What I found during this exercise probably won't surprise many people.
1. Miami's ACC team ranking based on recruiting was #2 in 2009 through 2012; trailing only FSU.
2. Miami's ACC team ranking based on recruiting was #3 in 2013 through 2015; trailing only FSU and Clemson.
3. Miami's team ranking based on recruiting was #1 in the Coastal Division in all years.
4. The average gap in average class ranking between Miami and the #2 team in the Coastal Division (VT) is 8 spots.
5. The average gap in average class ranking between Miami and the rest of the Coastal Division is 24 spots.
6. FSU's team ranking has been #1 in all years, and their average class ranking has been 9 spots ahead of Miami's.
7. The gap between FSU and Miami's average class rankings has been steadily growing over this entire time span. The gap was 4 spots in 2009 and is now 16 spots.
8. Of the final 2014 top 10 ranked teams in the country, only 3 had a higher 5-year average class ranking than Miami. Just thought people might find this random piece of data interesting.
Given Miami's 26-22 overall ACC record and 19-13 Coastal Division record over this time period, clearly recruiting rankings are not a good predictor of success in Miami's case.
Obviously, looking at one example doesn't allow me to conclude whether recruiting rankings in general are a good predictor of success. So, I decided to look at the results of every individual ACC game from the 2013 and 2014 seasons to determine the win percentage of the higher ranked team, based on recruiting, in each individual matchup. What I found during this exercise might surprise you.
1. During the 2013 season, the favorite team based on recruiting won 64.3% of the time.
2. During the 2014 season, the favorite team based on recruiting won 67.9% of the time.
3. During the 2013 season, the home team won exactly 50% of the time. That’s a pretty piss poor home field advantage for the ACC.
4. During the 2014 season, the home team won 51.8% of the time. Again, that’s a pretty piss poor home field advantage for the ACC.
5. During the 2013 season, the favorite team based on recruiting that was also the home team won 65.4% of the time.
6. During the 2014 season, the favorite team based on recruiting that was also the home team won 67.7% of the time.
What can we conclude from this? At least for the ACC, recruiting rankings are NOT a very good predictor of success on the field. I’m going to continue to track this each season to determine whether the pattern of results holds up, but I’d be surprised if we didn’t see very similar results year on year and across all conferences.
I've pulled Rivals data on the final recruiting rankings for every ACC team going back to 2005. I've then ranked each team, each year, by taking the average class rankings from the 5 most recent recruiting classes. For example, Miami's 2015 average class ranking of 21 uses the class rankings for 2011 (36), 2012 (9), 2013 (20), 2014 (12), and 2015 (26). Because I'm using an average of the 5 most recent class rankings to develop each year's team rankings, I was only able to develop team rankings going back to 2009. What I found during this exercise probably won't surprise many people.
1. Miami's ACC team ranking based on recruiting was #2 in 2009 through 2012; trailing only FSU.
2. Miami's ACC team ranking based on recruiting was #3 in 2013 through 2015; trailing only FSU and Clemson.
3. Miami's team ranking based on recruiting was #1 in the Coastal Division in all years.
4. The average gap in average class ranking between Miami and the #2 team in the Coastal Division (VT) is 8 spots.
5. The average gap in average class ranking between Miami and the rest of the Coastal Division is 24 spots.
6. FSU's team ranking has been #1 in all years, and their average class ranking has been 9 spots ahead of Miami's.
7. The gap between FSU and Miami's average class rankings has been steadily growing over this entire time span. The gap was 4 spots in 2009 and is now 16 spots.
8. Of the final 2014 top 10 ranked teams in the country, only 3 had a higher 5-year average class ranking than Miami. Just thought people might find this random piece of data interesting.
Given Miami's 26-22 overall ACC record and 19-13 Coastal Division record over this time period, clearly recruiting rankings are not a good predictor of success in Miami's case.
Obviously, looking at one example doesn't allow me to conclude whether recruiting rankings in general are a good predictor of success. So, I decided to look at the results of every individual ACC game from the 2013 and 2014 seasons to determine the win percentage of the higher ranked team, based on recruiting, in each individual matchup. What I found during this exercise might surprise you.
1. During the 2013 season, the favorite team based on recruiting won 64.3% of the time.
2. During the 2014 season, the favorite team based on recruiting won 67.9% of the time.
3. During the 2013 season, the home team won exactly 50% of the time. That’s a pretty piss poor home field advantage for the ACC.
4. During the 2014 season, the home team won 51.8% of the time. Again, that’s a pretty piss poor home field advantage for the ACC.
5. During the 2013 season, the favorite team based on recruiting that was also the home team won 65.4% of the time.
6. During the 2014 season, the favorite team based on recruiting that was also the home team won 67.7% of the time.
What can we conclude from this? At least for the ACC, recruiting rankings are NOT a very good predictor of success on the field. I’m going to continue to track this each season to determine whether the pattern of results holds up, but I’d be surprised if we didn’t see very similar results year on year and across all conferences.
