Great News - Covid Infections Have Peaked In FL

[816_Cane]

Great news for everyone following the statistics at home. I know Mikey and JDX are going to be disappointed but it is now evident that we have reached the peak of infections and reached some level of initial herd immunity threshold in the state. I believe the peak was actually around July 10th accounting for a 4 - 7 day lag in test results which push the peak to around July 17th. Going to see a steady drop in Covid census in hospitals, positive rate, and other key metrics through early August and then accelerating pretty quickly through the end of the month.

Positive cases by risk category are clearly trending downward which is the first good news.




Same with Covid census for the state as a whole. These numbers have only been available for the past 2 weeks but they peaked about a week ago and are now declining bit by bit. They peaked at 9,508 on July 20 (3 days after peak infections) and are now under 9,300. This same trend is holding true for all of the 7 major counties across FL as well.



By my estimates based on CDC estimates of IFR and asymptomatic cases Dade, Broward, and Palm are all have had about 20% of the population infected which is right around HIT for major population centers as evidenced by NYC, Stockholm, Italy, and others.

 

[honeyiv]

Great news for everyone following the statistics at home. I know Mikey and JDX are going to be disappointed but it is now evident that we have reached the peak of infections and reached some level of initial herd immunity threshold in the state. I believe the peak was actually around July 10th accounting for a 4 - 7 day lag in test results which push the peak to around July 17th. Going to see a steady drop in Covid census in hospitals, positive rate, and other key metrics through early August and then accelerating pretty quickly through the end of the month.

Positive cases by risk category are clearly trending downward which is the first good news.




Same with Covid census for the state as a whole. These numbers have only been available for the past 2 weeks but they peaked about a week ago and are now declining bit by bit. They peaked at 9,508 on July 20 (3 days after peak infections) and are now under 9,300. This same trend is holding true for all of the 7 major counties across FL as well.



By my estimates based on CDC estimates of IFR and asymptomatic cases Dade, Broward, and Palm are all have had about 20% of the population infected which is right around HIT for major population centers as evidenced by NYC, Stockholm, Italy, and others.

Not good news for the Libs on here or the teachers unions.

 

[kimzkr]

Good post ... TY

 

[majus12]

Great news for everyone following the statistics at home. I know Mikey and JDX are going to be disappointed but it is now evident that we have reached the peak of infections and reached some level of initial herd immunity threshold in the state. I believe the peak was actually around July 10th accounting for a 4 - 7 day lag in test results which push the peak to around July 17th. Going to see a steady drop in Covid census in hospitals, positive rate, and other key metrics through early August and then accelerating pretty quickly through the end of the month.

Positive cases by risk category are clearly trending downward which is the first good news.




Same with Covid census for the state as a whole. These numbers have only been available for the past 2 weeks but they peaked about a week ago and are now declining bit by bit. They peaked at 9,508 on July 20 (3 days after peak infections) and are now under 9,300. This same trend is holding true for all of the 7 major counties across FL as well.



By my estimates based on CDC estimates of IFR and asymptomatic cases Dade, Broward, and Palm are all have had about 20% of the population infected which is right around HIT for major population centers as evidenced by NYC, Stockholm, Italy, and others.

Private message MikeJW he posts stats 2x a day if not more.

 

[jdx2112]

Great news for everyone following the statistics at home. I know Mikey and JDX are going to be disappointed but it is now evident that we have reached the peak of infections and reached some level of initial herd immunity threshold in the state. I believe the peak was actually around July 10th accounting for a 4 - 7 day lag in test results which push the peak to around July 17th. Going to see a steady drop in Covid census in hospitals, positive rate, and other key metrics through early August and then accelerating pretty quickly through the end of the month.

Positive cases by risk category are clearly trending downward which is the first good news.




Same with Covid census for the state as a whole. These numbers have only been available for the past 2 weeks but they peaked about a week ago and are now declining bit by bit. They peaked at 9,508 on July 20 (3 days after peak infections) and are now under 9,300. This same trend is holding true for all of the 7 major counties across FL as well.



By my estimates based on CDC estimates of IFR and asymptomatic cases Dade, Broward, and Palm are all have had about 20% of the population infected which is right around HIT for major population centers as evidenced by NYC, Stockholm, Italy, and others.

https://www.npr.org/sections/health...chers-say-herd-immunity-may-never-be-achieved

...until there is an effective vaccine in widespread use, levels of immunity will never be high enough to achieve what's called herd immunity, these researchers say. That's the tipping point at which the disease begins to burn itself out because so many people are immune that it can't continue to spread.

https://www.khou.com/article/news/h...-yet/507-518a5edd-6d87-4d71-8b5d-e4da0833369d

The chief scientist at the World Health Organization estimates that about 50% to 60% of the population will need to be immune to the coronavirus for there to be any protective “herd immunity” effect...Other experts have estimated that as much as 70% to 80% of the population need to have antibodies before there is any herd immunity effect.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/opin...nt-do-what-we-did-its-not-working/ar-BB16ZEEv

Regardless of whether herd immunity is a goal or a side effect of the Swedish strategy, how has it worked out? Not so well, according to the agency’s own test results. The proportion of Swedes carrying antibodies is estimated to be under 10%, thus nowhere near herd immunity. And yet, the Swedish death rate is unnerving. Sweden has a death toll greater than the United States: 556 deaths per million inhabitants, compared with 425, as of July 20.

 

[816_Cane]

https://www.npr.org/sections/health...chers-say-herd-immunity-may-never-be-achieved

...until there is an effective vaccine in widespread use, levels of immunity will never be high enough to achieve what's called herd immunity, these researchers say. That's the tipping point at which the disease begins to burn itself out because so many people are immune that it can't continue to spread.

https://www.khou.com/article/news/h...-yet/507-518a5edd-6d87-4d71-8b5d-e4da0833369d

The chief scientist at the World Health Organization estimates that about 50% to 60% of the population will need to be immune to the coronavirus for there to be any protective “herd immunity” effect...Other experts have estimated that as much as 70% to 80% of the population need to have antibodies before there is any herd immunity effect.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/opin...nt-do-what-we-did-its-not-working/ar-BB16ZEEv

Regardless of whether herd immunity is a goal or a side effect of the Swedish strategy, how has it worked out? Not so well, according to the agency’s own test results. The proportion of Swedes carrying antibodies is estimated to be under 10%, thus nowhere near herd immunity. And yet, the Swedish death rate is unnerving. Sweden has a death toll greater than the United States: 556 deaths per million inhabitants, compared with 425, as of July 20.

Want to put money on it? $1k says we’ve hit the peak. You’re not intelligent enough to understand what is happening.

 

[jdx2112]

Want to put money on it? $1k says we’ve hit the peak. You’re not intelligent enough to understand what is happening.

I guess you are smarter than the experts.

 

[majus12]

I guess you are smarter than the experts.

He is definitely smarter than you, a typical sheep that absorbs EVERYTHING they hear and follows the ass in front of them
You and Joe keep your heads down, stay in your basements and have a Zoom circle jerk!
Pffft

 

[jdx2112]

Want to put money on it? $1k says we’ve hit the peak. You’re not intelligent enough to understand what is happening.

We hit a peak, not the peak in April. Then we reopened too quickly and look what happened. Peak is irrelevant. Getting cases down and positivity rates below 5% are what matter.

 

[kamco360]

I guess you are smarter than the experts.

There is an Oxford study that shows herd immunity at 10-20% due to t cell immunity in individuals with prior Corona virus immunity due to the cold. This would be consistent with what we have seen in then NE and Europe. Plus I trust Oxford way more than the CDC and WHO, they have been far more useful during this ordeal than either of those organizations. The CDC logo should be a meme of Fauci throwing the first pitch.

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&sou...Vaw0eSgNw0w8gUjwARYaCmqM9&cshid=1595680126589

 

[289fia]

There is an Oxford study that shows herd immunity at 10-20% due to t cell immunity in individuals with prior Corona virus immunity due to the cold. This would be consistent with what we have seen in then NE and Europe. Plus I trust Oxford way more than the CDC and WHO, they have been far more useful during this ordeal than either of those organizations. The CDC logo should be a meme of Fauci throwing the first pitch.

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&sou...Vaw0eSgNw0w8gUjwARYaCmqM9&cshid=1595680126589

Fauci is kind of like the weather man who tells you what the weather was YESTERDAY.

 

[BreakingCane]

He is definitely smarter than you, a typical sheep that absorbs EVERYTHING they hear and follows the ass in front of them
You and Joe keep your heads down, stay in your basements and have a Zoom circle jerk!
Pffft

Pretty much.

 

[816_Cane]

I guess you are smarter than the experts.

Clearly you don’t have enough faith in your experts to put your money where your mouth is. Don’t be scared. $1k says we’ve hit the peak. It should be a no-brainer for your PhD and Ivy League experts to blow little old me with a UM bachelor out of the water.

You clearly don’t understand what peak means. Reaching peak infections in a population means enough people have been infected (~20%) that your favorite stats cases, positive rate are forced down due to lack of hosts. Duh, we hit a peak in April that wasn’t peak infection rate of the population.

Only 1 stat we need to follow Covid Hospitalizations Census which is reported in real-time by the state of FL.

If infections have peaked less people are getting infected and discharges will outweigh admissions. If it hasn’t there will be equal or more admissions.

 

[grbcane]

Pretty much.

That pitch is as accurate as one of his predictions.

 

[deuce1906]

Great news for everyone following the statistics at home. I know Mikey and JDX are going to be disappointed but it is now evident that we have reached the peak of infections and reached some level of initial herd immunity threshold in the state. I believe the peak was actually around July 10th accounting for a 4 - 7 day lag in test results which push the peak to around July 17th. Going to see a steady drop in Covid census in hospitals, positive rate, and other key metrics through early August and then accelerating pretty quickly through the end of the month.

Positive cases by risk category are clearly trending downward which is the first good news.




Same with Covid census for the state as a whole. These numbers have only been available for the past 2 weeks but they peaked about a week ago and are now declining bit by bit. They peaked at 9,508 on July 20 (3 days after peak infections) and are now under 9,300. This same trend is holding true for all of the 7 major counties across FL as well.



By my estimates based on CDC estimates of IFR and asymptomatic cases Dade, Broward, and Palm are all have had about 20% of the population infected which is right around HIT for major population centers as evidenced by NYC, Stockholm, Italy, and others.

Or more people are wearing mask driving down the infection rate.....

you guys realize if when we get past this, it’s going to come back in the fall. We have to stay vigilant and continue doing the things we can do to drive down #s.

 

[grbcane]

https://www.npr.org/sections/health...chers-say-herd-immunity-may-never-be-achieved

...until there is an effective vaccine in widespread use, levels of immunity will never be high enough to achieve what's called herd immunity, these researchers say. That's the tipping point at which the disease begins to burn itself out because so many people are immune that it can't continue to spread.

https://www.khou.com/article/news/h...-yet/507-518a5edd-6d87-4d71-8b5d-e4da0833369d

The chief scientist at the World Health Organization estimates that about 50% to 60% of the population will need to be immune to the coronavirus for there to be any protective “herd immunity” effect...Other experts have estimated that as much as 70% to 80% of the population need to have antibodies before there is any herd immunity effect.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/opin...nt-do-what-we-did-its-not-working/ar-BB16ZEEv

Regardless of whether herd immunity is a goal or a side effect of the Swedish strategy, how has it worked out? Not so well, according to the agency’s own test results. The proportion of Swedes carrying antibodies is estimated to be under 10%, thus nowhere near herd immunity. And yet, the Swedish death rate is unnerving. Sweden has a death toll greater than the United States: 556 deaths per million inhabitants, compared with 425, as of July 20.

816 references

Not good news for the Libs on here or the teachers unions.

Kids are completely safe going back to school, and their not transmitters of the virus. The risk is so low, it’s amazing this is even a debate,

 

[grbcane]

Or more people are wearing mask driving down the infection rate.....

you guys realize if when we get past this, it’s going to come back in the fall. We have to stay vigilant and continue doing the things we can do to drive down #s.

I wear a mask because I have too, but I don’t think the science says masks work, or more to the point are reducing infections.



https://www.sott.net/article/434796...F8ul__W02I7S7Sbhir00sUbmB1lJGMwtVQsEgv5CGRmSg

 

[honeyiv]

816 references


Kids are completely safe going back to school, and their not transmitters of the virus. The risk is so low, it’s amazing this is even a debate,

They only want to listen to science....until they don't like what the science is saying.

 

[deuce1906]

816 references


Kids are completely safe going back to school, and their not transmitters of the virus. The risk is so low, it’s amazing this is even a debate,

who said that? Kids 10 and up spread the disease just as well as adults. That study was released this past Monday...

 

[honeyiv]

who said that? Kids 10 and up spread the disease just as well as adults. That study was released this past Monday...

That was a hoax study.

 

[deuce1906]

I wear a mask because I have too, but I don’t think the science says masks work, or more to the point are reducing infections.



https://www.sott.net/article/434796...F8ul__W02I7S7Sbhir00sUbmB1lJGMwtVQsEgv5CGRmSg

here you can read some of these articles. People in the medical profession have been wearing mask for years. here are a few articles that support that. Take this Saturday and do a bit of reading.....

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1m-o_9N9Yq3cq7toP1-nZKtAHTIQ-Nqeqaj866sycl6w/mobilebasic

 

[816_Cane]

Or more people are wearing mask driving down the infection rate.....

you guys realize if when we get past this, it’s going to come back in the fall. We have to stay vigilant and continue doing the things we can do to drive down #s.

Masks aren’t doing anything. And this isn’t coming back in the fall for FL. It may hit somewhere else that is trying to lockdown so hard they think they can eradicate it.

You have to get through it to get over it. FL has done that.

 

[deuce1906]

I wear a mask because I have too, but I don’t think the science says masks work, or more to the point are reducing infections.



https://www.sott.net/article/434796...F8ul__W02I7S7Sbhir00sUbmB1lJGMwtVQsEgv5CGRmSg

what in the world is Scott.net? That’s not a reliable source any scientist would go to. Go to pub med, or legit journals that provide this type of information. What source is that?? that’s like one of us starting our own site claiming to have better inside info than Gary...

The dudes conclusions are all wrong. Saying the microns to the virus are to small. That’s true. But those microns cannot survive on their own. They need a carrier or a host to get anywhere such as droplets. The mask is effective is reducing the amount of droplets that are released into the air. The virus doesn’t magically separate from its host to filter through the mask.

That’s junk. Saying n95 mask cause headaches. Yes if you wear them for hours on in. No one even in a hospital setting wears it for 12 hrs straight. You take it off throughout the day and you oxygen levels can stabilize within minutes.

 

[honeyiv]

Masks aren’t doing anything. And this isn’t coming back in the fall for FL. It may hit somewhere else that is trying to lockdown so hard they think they can eradicate it.

You have to get through it to get over it. FL has done that.

That makes too much sense.

 

[deuce1906]

Masks aren’t doing anything. And this isn’t coming back in the fall for FL. It may hit somewhere else that is trying to lockdown so hard they think they can eradicate it.

You have to get through it to get over it. FL has done that.

you’re wrong. Mask do a lot. I just posted for you the weakness of your mask argument. It’s coming back in the fall. I don’t know what you do for a living but I majored in chemistry in college, got a doctorate degree in the healthcare field, and been working in it for 12 years now. I don’t know any qualified medical person who makes these claims.

I don’t know your credentials my fellow canes fan but you’re wrong.

 

[deuce1906]

The guy who wrote your mask article denis rancourt is a conspiracy theorist physicist who was fired from his job from the university of Ottawa 10 years ago. He has crackpot theories on climate change amongst other things. He’s not a credible source. Yet these are the guys you guys are promoting to be a counter to guys like doctor Fauci who is world renown for his work for decades. Get the F**k out of here with fake discredited people with no credentials to their name posting “scientific Papers” on a made up site.

lol. But bc I’ve studied this stuff I know fake scientific articles when I see it. And you guys cling to it like gospel. Again. I don’t know your background educationally but you’re not at all credible with your prediction as it’s based on junky information.

 

[majus12]

The guy who wrote your mask article denis rancourt is a conspiracy theorist physicist who was fired from his job from the university of Ottawa 10 years ago. He has crackpot theories on climate change amongst other things. He’s not a credible source. Yet these are the guys you guys are promoting to be a counter to guys like doctor Fauci who is world renown for his work for decades. Get the F**k out of here with fake discredited people with no credentials to their name posting “scientific Papers” on a made up site.

lol. But bc I’ve studied this stuff I know fake scientific articles when I see it. And you guys cling to it like gospel. Again. I don’t know your background educationally but you’re not at all credible with your prediction as it’s based on junky information.

Just shhhhh already. Your biden vote will simply be wasted.
Trump til 2024
Pfffffft

 

[816_Cane]

you’re wrong. Mask do a lot. I just posted for you the weakness of your mask argument. It’s coming back in the fall. I don’t know what you do for a living but I majored in chemistry in college, got a doctorate degree in the healthcare field, and been working in it for 12 years now. I don’t know any qualified medical person who makes these claims.

I don’t know your credentials my fellow canes fan but you’re wrong.

Verifying bonafides on a message board is a pointless endeavor so not going to go there and I can find just as many studies that show masks do nothing. It’s a sum zero game.

If you’re so confident that it comes back in the fall define what that means and put some numbers behind it so we can see.

 

[honeyiv]

Or more people are wearing mask driving down the infection rate.....

you guys realize if when we get past this, it’s going to come back in the fall. We have to stay vigilant and continue doing the things we can do to drive down #s.

Let me guess? Like wearing a hoax mask?

 

[grbcane]

who said that? Kids 10 and up spread the disease just as well as adults. That study was released this past Monday...

Here’s what the Association of Pediatrics have to say.




https://www.kxxv.com/news/local-new...-students-should-return-to-school-in-the-fall

 

[deuce1906]

Verifying bonafides on a message board is a pointless endeavor so not going to go there and I can find just as many studies that show masks do nothing. It’s a sum zero game.

If you’re so confident that it comes back in the fall define what that means and put some numbers behind it so we can see.

well it’s a respiratory disease. And respiratory disease increase in the fall and winter months. That’s when they thrive. Link below:

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6031196/

 

[deuce1906]

Here’s what the Association of Pediatrics have to say.




https://www.kxxv.com/news/local-new...-students-should-return-to-school-in-the-fall

yeah that was taken in the wrong context. They said You should go back to school if there’s NOT community spread of the disease. Which is the same thing the CDC organically said. People took that little bit of info about opening and ran with it.

https://www.newschannel5.com/news/n...ls-really-cant-open-now-for-in-person-classes

 

[deuce1906]

Verifying bonafides on a message board is a pointless endeavor so not going to go there and I can find just as many studies that show masks do nothing. It’s a sum zero game.

If you’re so confident that it comes back in the fall define what that means and put some numbers behind it so we can see.

verifying bonafides on a message board.... Well you’re here spewing incorrect information. Misleading people, reinforcing people’s worst instincts on something that may potentially kill them or a family member. I think calling you out is important. I think bonafides are important. Not just your hunch or “I’ve been doing research on this topic”

this isn’t what offense should we run spread or pro style. I don’t care about your bonafides there. But this ain’t what we are discussing.

the validity of your studies matter. Your source matters. You can’t just post an article you seen that has no merit and hasn’t been peer reviewed by others and trusted sources. That one link you sent on mask was trash, the author is trash!

 

[grbcane]

yeah that was taken in the wrong context. They said You should go back to school if there’s NOT community spread of the disease. Which is the same thing the CDC organically said. People took that little bit of info about opening and ran with it.

https://www.newschannel5.com/news/n...ls-really-cant-open-now-for-in-person-classes

No, it clearly states children 1 to 14 are the least likely group to get corona.

 

[grbcane]

No, it clearly states children 1 to 14 are the least likely group to get corona.

Europe has done extensive research on this, those countries are sending kids back to school.

 

[dmatt]

Want to put money on it? $1k says we’ve hit the peak. You’re not intelligent enough to understand what is happening.

I hope your right.We had over 12k yesterday..Over 10k day before...then 9k, 11k and again 12k..When do we peak and at what number..

 

[deuce1906]

No, it clearly states children 1 to 14 are the least likely group to get corona.

the children age group 10 and up spread disease just as effectively as adults. Look up what happened in Israel after the opened up schools too fast. Look at their curves. Plenty of articles chronicling all of this.


https://www.wsj.com/articles/israel...-too-soon-as-covid-19-cases-climb-11594760001

 

[deuce1906]

Europe has done extensive research on this, those countries are sending kids back to school.

yes because they don’t have community spread. They are getting 200-400 cases per day in the entire individual countries!!!! We are getting 75k. Florida is getting 10K on its own!! The entire euro union gets about 4K cases per day. They are 440 million!

 

[816_Cane]

verifying bonafides on a message board.... Well you’re here spewing incorrect information. Misleading people, reinforcing people’s worst instincts on something that may potentially kill them or a family member. I think calling you out is important. I think bonafides are important. Not just your hunch or “I’ve been doing research on this topic”

this isn’t what offense should we run spread or pro style. I don’t care about your bonafides there. But this ain’t what we are discussing.

the validity of your studies matter. Your source matters. You can’t just post an article you seen that has no merit and hasn’t been peer reviewed by others and trusted sources. That one link you sent on mask was trash, the author is trash!

I didn’t post any articles on masks. Try to keep your posters straight. Tell me one thing I’ve posted that is incorrect or misleading. I’ll wait.

 

[grbcane]

yes because they don’t have community spread. They are getting 200-400 cases per day in the entire individual countries!!!! We are getting 75k. Florida is getting 10K on its own!! The entire euro union gets about 4K cases per day. They are 440 million!

I will later, in a cafe and I have no bars. and their internet Sucks.