Great News - Covid Infections Have Peaked In FL

[816_Cane]

I hope your right.We had over 12k yesterday..Over 10k day before...then 9k, 11k and again 12k..When do we peak and at what number..

I hope your right.We had over 12k yesterday..Over 10k day before...then 9k, 11k and again 12k..When do we peak and at what number..

I don’t know the exact number of cases, no one does. What I mean by peak infection is we have hit a level of community spread where spread is no longer accelerating, it is decelerating due to herd immunity and lack of vulnerable hosts.

We will continue to have more cases, but the positive rate, hospitalizations, and deaths will steadily and consistently decline from here on out as the virus dies out in the next 2 months.

And before people bring up deaths. Deaths will continue to increase before plateauing in the next 2-4 weeks due to lag of both deaths and reporting.

 

[deuce1906]

I didn’t post any articles on masks. Try to keep your posters straight. Tell me one thing I’ve posted that is incorrect. I’ll wait.

my bad. Too many of y’all. You said masks don’t work and that this ain’t coming back in the fall. You’re also big on herd immunity. Which isn’t happening. You said it can be achieved I believe at 20% if I can remember your post right.

All those things are incorrect

 

[deuce1906]

I don’t know the exact number of cases, no one does. What I mean by peak infection is we have hit a level of community spread where spread is no longer accelerating, it is decelerating due to herd immunity and lack of vulnerable hosts.

We will continue to have more cases, but the positive rate, hospitalizations, and deaths will steadily and consistently decline from here on out as the virus dies out in the next 2 months.

And before people bring up deaths. Deaths will continue to increase before plateauing in the next 2-4 weeks due to lag of both deaths and reporting.

The numbers are leveling off because of the measures that were put in place in south Florida. They have put a kink in the spread. These measures were implemented right after Independence Day. There was even talk about another lock down. But they just decided to mandate masks and tighten the screws on enforcement. That was a little over 2 weeks ago which now we are seeing the results of it.... nothing to do with herd immunity

 

[816_Cane]

my bad. Too many of y’all. You said masks don’t work and that this ain’t coming back in the fall. You’re also big on herd immunity. Which isn’t happening. You said it can be achieved I believe at 20% if I can remember your post right.

All those things are incorrect

They are hypothesis which have not been proven correct or incorrect. No one has proven anything. Like I said put numbers and statistics behind your belief “this will return in the fall” so your hypothesis can be proven true or false. Still waiting.

At the end of the day I am confident I will be more right with my analysis and review that you.

 

[816_Cane]

The numbers are leveling off because of the measures that were put in place in south Florida. They have put a kink in the spread. These measures were implemented right after Independence Day. There was even talk about another lock down. But they just decided to mandate masks and tighten the screws on enforcement. That was a little over 2 weeks ago which now we are seeing the results of it.... nothing to do with herd immunity

You mean the same measures implemented in California and LA County for the past 2 to 3 months to an even greater extent which has led to an explosion in case, hospitalizations, and deaths?

 

[deuce1906]

You mean the same measures implemented in California and LA County for the past 2 to 3 months to an even greater extent which has led to an explosion in case, hospitalizations, and deaths?

they have far more people in LA and Cali than we do. They have double the amount of citizens (20 mil to 40 mil) and we are neck and neck with them in terms of #. Often beating them in daily case #s. It’s only an issue in southern cal. Not as much in northern.

 

[jdx2112]

There is an Oxford study that shows herd immunity at 10-20% due to t cell immunity in individuals with prior Corona virus immunity due to the cold. This would be consistent with what we have seen in then NE and Europe. Plus I trust Oxford way more than the CDC and WHO, they have been far more useful during this ordeal than either of those organizations. The CDC logo should be a meme of Fauci throwing the first pitch.

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&sou...Vaw0eSgNw0w8gUjwARYaCmqM9&cshid=1595680126589

No consensus:

Levels of herd immunity within the UK may already be high enough

The researchers posit

In a paper yet to be peer-reviewed

Fact is we don’t know what it will take to reach herd immunity, so embracing that approach is risky and unfounded.

 

[816_Cane]

they have far more people in LA and Cali than we do. They have double the amount of citizens (20 mil to 40 mil) and we are neck and neck with them in terms of #. Often beating them in daily case #s. It’s only an issue in southern cal. Not as much in northern.

Well that’s not good because on average they’re doing the same number of tests as FL per day (about 100k). If they were keeping up with FL in per cap testing numbers it would look much different.

 

[deuce1906]

Well that’s not good because on average they’re doing the same number of tests as FL per day (about 100k). If they were keeping up with FL in per cap testing numbers it would look much different.

it’s a big state. Miami tests different than Pensacola.... well actually lol

 

[deuce1906]

I will later, in a cafe and I have no bars. and their internet Sucks.

Arizona

 

[816_Cane]

it’s a big state. Miami tests different than Pensacola.... well actually lol

Wrong again. Escambia County tests a larger percentage of their population on a daily basis over the past 2 weeks than Dade County does.

Feel free to check the math.

http://ww11.doh.state.fl.us/comm/_partners/covid19_report_archive/county_reports_latest.pdf

 

[deuce1906]

Wrong again. Escambia County tests a larger percentage of their population on a daily basis over the past 2 weeks than Dade County does.

Feel free to check the math.

http://ww11.doh.state.fl.us/comm/_partners/covid19_report_archive/county_reports_latest.pdf

min not doubting that. I was being sarcastic. Hence the “well actually”

 

[816_Cane]

min not doubting that. I was being sarcastic. Hence the “well actually”

Gotcha so your whole premise that California is a big state and shouldn’t be testing more than FL. The argument you used to illustrate was that the largest population center and a small panhandle county tested unequally which is 100% false now turns into sarcasm.

Looking forward to the future results continuing to prove everything you say to be false.

 

[deuce1906]

Gotcha so your whole premise that California is a big state and shouldn’t be testing more than FL. The argument you used to illustrate was that the largest population center and a small panhandle county tested unequally which is 100% false now turns into sarcasm.

Looking forward to the future results continuing to prove everything you say to be false.

lol. What have I said that was false??. I everything I’ve stated were based in facts and I provide links to truth. I never said anything about how much they test there.

We aren’t testing enough everywhere across the board. And the testing we have is awful when it takes 5-10 days to get results. People who don’t know if they have it have more of an opportunity to spread it to others.

 

[816_Cane]

lol. What have I said that was false??. I everything I’ve stated were based in facts and I provide links to truth. I never said anything about how much they test there.

We aren’t testing enough everywhere across the board. And the testing we have is awful when it takes 5-10 days to get results. People who don’t know if they have it have more of an opportunity to spread it to others.

Recently, your whole argument that California and Florida are matching for positive cases when per capita California is completing half the tests FL is false and a misuse of statistics.

It’s been fun. Heading to the bars to enjoy life. Looking forward to bumping this weekly with updates whether right or wrong.

 

[grbcane]

the children age group 10 and up spread disease just as effectively as adults. Look up what happened in Israel after the opened up schools too fast. Look at their curves. Plenty of articles chronicling all of this.


https://www.wsj.com/articles/israel...-too-soon-as-covid-19-cases-climb-11594760001

It says I have to subscribe to read full article.

 

[deuce1906]

It says I have to subscribe to read full article.

https://www.usnews.com/news/best-co...ggle-with-reopening-amid-coronavirus-pandemic

 

[BreakingCane]

Deuce spreading his out of context lies and cherry picked again. Glad I stopped engaging the ignorance.

 

[grbcane]

 

[grbcane]

https://www.usnews.com/news/best-co...ggle-with-reopening-amid-coronavirus-pandemic

I appreciated the perspective the article brought, there’s still a lot we don’t know, but it was a lot of antidotal evidence from parents.

 

[816_Cane]

Great news for everyone following the statistics at home. I know Mikey and JDX are going to be disappointed but it is now evident that we have reached the peak of infections and reached some level of initial herd immunity threshold in the state. I believe the peak was actually around July 10th accounting for a 4 - 7 day lag in test results which push the peak to around July 17th. Going to see a steady drop in Covid census in hospitals, positive rate, and other key metrics through early August and then accelerating pretty quickly through the end of the month.

Positive cases by risk category are clearly trending downward which is the first good news.




Same with Covid census for the state as a whole. These numbers have only been available for the past 2 weeks but they peaked about a week ago and are now declining bit by bit. They peaked at 9,508 on July 20 (3 days after peak infections) and are now under 9,300. This same trend is holding true for all of the 7 major counties across FL as well.



By my estimates based on CDC estimates of IFR and asymptomatic cases Dade, Broward, and Palm are all have had about 20% of the population infected which is right around HIT for major population centers as evidenced by NYC, Stockholm, Italy, and others.

One week update and the peak is definitely holding true and herd immunity is working. Positive rate has dropped from a 7 day average high of 15% around 7/10 to currently sitting under 12%. A significant drop in just 3 weeks.



Cases are a crappy metric, always have been and always will be, but those are way down as well.

In addition, hospitalization census with a primary diagnosis of covid has dropped from a high of 9,508 on July 20 to only 8,260 today. That is a 13% drop in only 10 days which is ridiculously fast. Just in the past 4 days FL has averaged a net outflow of 200 covid patients per day. The affects of herd immunity are incredible.



Will be happy to bump this every Friday whether I am right or wrong since so many people can't admit their mistakes. So far I am firmly right.

@jdx2112 still can't put his money where his mouth is, @MikeJW seems to have paused his cosplay fascination with the grim reaper but still loves posting non-sense about shutdowns, @deuce1906 still can't define what it means when corona "returns in the fall" but loves to repeat it because that's what all the experts say, and @dmatt can't see the truth because of his infatuation with politics.

As a side-note, I had the pleasure of travelling to ND this week and attending an independent league baseball game in Fargo. Was great to enjoy the freedom of ND with no masks, 100% capacities in bars and restaurants, and a sporting event with 1,500 other fans. Looking forward to football season.

 

[jdx2112]

One week update and the peak is definitely holding true and herd immunity is working. Positive rate has dropped from a 7 day average high of 15% around 7/10 to currently sitting under 12%. A significant drop in just 3 weeks.



Cases are a crappy metric, always have been and always will be, but those are way down as well.

In addition, hospitalization census with a primary diagnosis of covid has dropped from a high of 9,508 on July 20 to only 8,260 today. That is a 13% drop in only 10 days which is ridiculously fast. Just in the past 4 days FL has averaged a net outflow of 200 covid patients per day. The affects of herd immunity are incredible.



Will be happy to bump this every Friday whether I am right or wrong since so many people can't admit their mistakes. So far I am firmly right.

@jdx2112 still can't put his money where his mouth is, @MikeJW seems to have paused his cosplay fascination with the grim reaper but still loves posting non-sense about shutdowns, @deuce1906 still can't define what it means when corona "returns in the fall" but loves to repeat it because that's what all the experts say, and @dmatt can't see the truth because of his infatuation with politics.

As a side-note, I had the pleasure of travelling to ND this week and attending an independent league baseball game in Fargo. Was great to enjoy the freedom of ND with no masks, 100% capacities in bars and restaurants, and a sporting event with 1,500 other fans. Looking forward to football season.

Axios
@axios

NEW: Florida reported 257 new coronavirus deaths in 24 hours, breaking the state's daily deaths record for the fourth straight day.

 

[816_Cane]

Axios
@axios

NEW: Florida reported 257 new coronavirus deaths in 24 hours, breaking the state's daily deaths record for the fourth straight day.

Keep ignoring that this is winding down in FL. Deaths are a lagging statistic and in a few weeks you’ll have no more dead people to celebrate like a plaque on the wall. Less people infected, less people in hospitals, less people dying.

You’re like the Washington Generals of intelligent thought.

And for all your excitement over deaths the past week no date of actual death has surpassed 150 yet.

 

[816_Cane]

2 week update since (correctly) calling the peak and it's still not looking good for the people living in fear. Herd immunity is a hell of a drug. Positive rates dropped another 2% in the past week and are now down to 10%. The lowest levels in over 45 days.



Hospitalizations for Covid continue their steep decline as well. Dropping from 8,260 at this time last week to only 7,202 today. A net decrease of 1,058 or 13% WoW. That is a total decline of 25% since correctly calling the peak. At this pace we will be under 4k people hospitalized for Covid by the end of the month across the entire state.



Although @cems52 is actually hoping for more deaths and FL to enter the top 10 in deaths per capita (currently 18th at 361/m to get into top 10 would be 613/m right now) deaths appear to have peaked on 7.16 and 7.17 at about 150 and will continue tailing off from here. FL has actually gotten good at reporting deaths and 90%+ are now reported within 7 days of date of death which is pretty solid. There will be back fill for the past 10 days but the peak deaths are solidly behind us.



@dmatt has finally been honest and acknowledged succumbing to the practices of people he professes to hate by lying and misconstruing facts to serve his purpose because his is a noble cause.

@jdx2112 is still a clown @MikeJW has started reading some sensible data from intelligent people but still doesn't quite understand it, there may be hope yet.

Football practice starts tonight, school is back in session for the majority of parents and kids who chose in-person learning, and common sense is winning.

 

[816_Cane]

3rd weekly update and trends get better every week. Highlight this week is the rapid decrease in hospital census for patients hospitalized for Covid has now gone under 6k patients. Crazy how well you can predict and call things when you use legitimate math and science. My prediction of peak infections has proven true in every single statistic.

Since the peak on 7.20 less than a month ago that census has dropped from 9,508 to 5,893, a 38% drop.



The 3 hot spot counties (also the most restrictive counties) have seen big drops as well. Dade 41% reduction, Broward 39%, and Palm Beach 42%.

The peak day of death is still 172 on 7.16.20 and the trend is clearly moving down. We all know how @dmatt loves to shame you with deaths but the fact is even with 8 days of 200+ deaths reported there has not been a single day where over 200 people have died and at this point probably won't be. I'm sure he'll find some new stats to misrepresent soon.

@cems52 still crosses his fingers every day that FL ends up in top 10 of deaths. Since last week we have moved up 1 spot and are now tied for 17th in the US with per capita deaths.

@jdx2112 has not stats anymore so now he just whines about policies.

 

[BreakingCane]

3rd weekly update and trends get better every week. Highlight this week is the rapid decrease in hospital census for patients hospitalized for Covid has now gone under 6k patients. Crazy how well you can predict and call things when you use legitimate math and science. My prediction of peak infections has proven true in every single statistic.

Since the peak on 7.20 less than a month ago that census has dropped from 9,508 to 5,893, a 38% drop.



The 3 hot spot counties (also the most restrictive counties) have seen big drops as well. Dade 41% reduction, Broward 39%, and Palm Beach 42%.

The peak day of death is still 172 on 7.16.20 and the trend is clearly moving down. We all know how @dmatt loves to shame you with deaths but the fact is even with 8 days of 200+ deaths reported there has not been a single day where over 200 people have died and at this point probably won't be. I'm sure he'll find some new stats to misrepresent soon.

@cems52 still crosses his fingers every day that FL ends up in top 10 of deaths. Since last week we have moved up 1 spot and are now tied for 17th in the US with per capita deaths.

@jdx2112 has not stats anymore so now he just whines about policies.

Solid. You made the loons vanish. Where are @dmatt @MikeJW and @jdx2112 ?

 

[816_Cane]

It's been 1 month since correctly calling peak infection rate in FL. Numbers continue to drop at a steady pace even with more and more people living life like normal, schools opening, and deaths now showing the predictable drop as well well.

Percent positive for the state is down below 8% and continues the march downward.



Hospitalizations are way down as well and all of Palm, Broward, and Dade have dropped hospital census for patients admitted for covid by 50% in the last month.



~2 weeks ago @cems52 (along with @dmatt) was salivating and practically cheering on FL ending up in Top 10 for per capita deaths. Unfortunately, for those guys. FL is still exactly where they were at #17 out of 50. I hope he's not holding his breath as it will NEVER happen.



@MikeJW seems to have disappear, he may be shopping for Halloween costumes like his idol but @jdx2112 is doing all he can to keep the hysteria alive and well.

 

[krvanness]

It's been 1 month since correctly calling peak infection rate in FL. Numbers continue to drop at a steady pace even with more and more people living life like normal, schools opening, and deaths now showing the predictable drop as well well.

Percent positive for the state is down below 8% and continues the march downward.



Hospitalizations are way down as well and all of Palm, Broward, and Dade have dropped hospital census for patients admitted for covid by 50% in the last month.



~2 weeks ago @cems52 (along with @dmatt) was salivating and practically cheering on FL ending up in Top 10 for per capita deaths. Unfortunately, for those guys. FL is still exactly where they were at #17 out of 50. I hope he's not holding his breath as it will NEVER happen.



@MikeJW seems to have disappear, he may be shopping for Halloween costumes like his idol but @jdx2112 is doing all he can to keep the hysteria alive and well.

Can you please put a stop to these positive posts?

 

[816_Cane]

Can you please put a stop to these positive posts?

Haha, I said I would follow-up every week right or wrong. I thought that was what everyone, no matter if you lean right or left, said was they want accountability. All our friends seem to have run off when there is actual data and facts presented over time to hold people accountable for their posts.

 

[kamco360]

Solid. You made the loons vanish. Where are @dmatt @MikeJW and @jdx2112 ?

I would put them all on suicide watch, they have had so much panic porn they didn't know what to do. Now it is all drying up, serious depression is about to set in. When 45 wins in November I dont know what they will do.

 

[kamco360]

Haha, I said I would follow-up every week right or wrong. I thought that was what everyone, no matter if you lean right or left, said was they want accountability. All our friends seem to have run off when there is actual data and facts presented over time to hold people accountable for their posts.

Same 8-10 week trajectory as every other place on the planet. Thankfully Desantis and to a lesser extent Abbott had the stones to stay open. Newsome is going to look like an absolute fool when they have a small third spike in the fall in Northern CA because they foolishly locked down again. The only emissions he is going to have to worry about are the millions of uhauls heading towards AZ, TX and FL.

 

[801canesmxer]

Same 8-10 week trajectory as every other place on the planet. Thankfully Desantis and to a lesser extent Abbott had the stones to stay open. Newsome is going to look like an absolute fool when they have a small third spike in the fall in Northern CA because they foolishly locked down again. The only emissions he is going to have to worry about are the millions of uhauls heading towards AZ, TX and FL.

An awful lot of them CA transplants are heading here to Utah too.

 

[cems52]

It's been 1 month since correctly calling peak infection rate in FL. Numbers continue to drop at a steady pace even with more and more people living life like normal, schools opening, and deaths now showing the predictable drop as well well.

Percent positive for the state is down below 8% and continues the march downward.



Hospitalizations are way down as well and all of Palm, Broward, and Dade have dropped hospital census for patients admitted for covid by 50% in the last month.



~2 weeks ago @cems52 (along with @dmatt) was salivating and practically cheering on FL ending up in Top 10 for per capita deaths. Unfortunately, for those guys. FL is still exactly where they were at #17 out of 50. I hope he's not holding his breath as it will NEVER happen.



@MikeJW seems to have disappear, he may be shopping for Halloween costumes like his idol but @jdx2112 is doing all he can to keep the hysteria alive and well.

Cases 593K +4,555

Deaths 10,167

 

[816_Cane]

Cases 593K +4,555

Deaths 10,167

No comment on actively rooting for more Floridians to die?

 

[cems52]

No comment on actively rooting for more Floridians to die?

More right-wing fantasy.

 

[816_Cane]

More right-wing fantasy.

Not sure how else you would take your comments in reference to the top 15 worst performing states by per capita deaths when you said "patience FL will be there soon"

Thankfully you were wrong as usual.

 

[krvanness]

More right-wing fantasy.

Don't you hate the data 816 posted to back up his claims Cems? He's really pissing me off.

 

[cems52]

Don't you hate the data 816 posted to back up his claims Cems? He's really pissing me off.

The only data I like are the many polls that have Biden up biggly.

Lol...lol
Lol...lol

 

[cems52]

Not sure how else you would take your comments in reference to the top 15 worst performing states by per capita deaths when you said "patience FL will be there soon"

Thankfully you were wrong as usual.

What you failed to mention was the fact many of these deaths could have been avoided. Weak policies from Trump and Desantis have resulted in more deaths than necessary. Keep drinking the koolaid.

 

[krvanness]

The only data I like are the many polls that have Biden up biggly.

Lol...lol
Lol...lol

I hear ya cems. It's awesome isn't it? So reminiscent of 2016! Like a trip down memory lane...